If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary?
21
125
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resolved Feb 7
Resolved
YES

Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary

edit: I'm going to resolve as Haley wins if NOTA gets the most votes and Haley get the second most votes

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@AmmonLam Resolves YES: NOTA got the most votes, with Haley the second most.

NOTA is a proxy for Trump, so ...

She can win the primary but it won’t count because it won’t allocate delegates. Nevada is doing a caucus for the 26 delegates and that what really matters to win the nomination

predicted YES

Does it still count as a Haley win if she gets fewer votes than None of the Above? I think the general rule in statewide offices is that if None of the Above gets the most votes, the candidate with the most votes (second to None of the Above) gets the office.

@riverwalk3 good question. in the rare case that this happens, how do you suggest I resolve the market?
I might resolve it to NA

predicted YES

@AmmonLam Generally the actual candidate with the most votes wins the position, so it should resolve to Haley if we see something like 50% NOTA, 49% Haley.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/None_of_These_Candidates

See the past examples where None of the Above actually got the most votes, but the actual candidate with the most votes won the election.

@riverwalk3 Okay that's reasonable. I'm going to resolve as Haley wins if NOTA gets the most votes and Haley get the second most votes

will resolve literally according to the question title

boughtṀ30YES

@riverwalk3 good catch

They’re running in different races - Trump only in the caucus, Haley only in the primary. Which are you referring to?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@MarkHamill Clearly the primary, the market seems to be a little bit of a scam :-)

@ThomasTwenhoven will resolve literally according to the question title