I will select 50 component companies of the S&P 500 at random at the end of the year and check whether they enforce AI use by a large (roughly, more than half) portion of their employees. I will look for a statement from the company, leaked internal documents, or reporting from a major news journal.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (15 traders, as of May 20, 2026).

Will half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

45% chance

OpenAI has AI CEO by EOY 2026?

4% chance

Will there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?

11% chance

Will []AI join the S&P 500?

80% chance

Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026?

7% chance

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

18% chance

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

21% chance

Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

62% chance

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

74% chance

Will a company with at least $1B in revenue be run primarily by an AI CEO before 2030?

23% chance