Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Ran Gvili's body is returned to Israel by June 30, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed through official Israeli government announcements or credible news reports from major outlets (Times of Israel, AP, Reuters, etc.) documenting the return of his remains to Israeli territory. The market resolves NO if his body has not been returned by the deadline.

Background

Gvili, a member of the Yamam police unit, was killed battling terrorists at Kibbutz Alumim on October 7, 2023, when his remains were then abducted to Gaza. A panel of experts ruled in January 2024 that Gvili was no longer alive. Gvili's remains are the last of 28 to be located and handed over by Hamas under the ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu stated "We are determined to return Rani for burial in Israel and will spare no effort to do so." Israeli security assessments hold both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad responsible for the whereabouts of Gvili's remains and maintain that they possess sufficient information to enable recovery.

Considerations

Negotiator Nitzan Alon says Hamas faces an "objective difficulty" locating the body. Some have speculated that Hamas knows the location of Gvili's remains but has not released them to avoid bringing the hostage-release phase of the ceasefire to an end. Israeli officials say the failure to return Gvili's remains has directly contributed to the current deadlock in ceasefire discussions.

Note on "Exchange": The method of return (e.g., as part of a diplomatic deal, military operation, or humanitarian gesture) does not affect the resolution, as long as the physical return is confirmed.

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if Ran Gvili's remains are returned to Israeli territory by June 30, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed through official Israeli government announcements or credible news reports from major outlets (Times of Israel, AP, Reuters, etc.) documenting the return. The market resolves NO if his remains have not been returned by the deadline. The method of return (diplomatic deal, military operation, or humanitarian gesture) does not affect resolution—only physical confirmation of return matters.

Background

Ran Gvili, a Yamam police unit member, was killed during the October 7, 2023 attack on Kibbutz Alumim and his remains were taken to Gaza. A panel of experts determined in January 2024 that Gvili was deceased. His remains are the last of 28 bodies to be located and handed over by Hamas under the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Israeli security assessments indicate both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad possess sufficient information to enable recovery.

Considerations

Negotiator Nitzan Alon has stated Hamas faces an "objective difficulty" locating the body, though some analysts suggest Hamas may be withholding the remains to prevent the hostage-release phase of the ceasefire from concluding. Israeli officials have indicated the failure to return Gvili's remains has directly contributed to current deadlock in ceasefire negotiations.