Will any AI get a score of at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark before March 11, 2025?
Basic
10
Ṁ214Mar 10
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Will you resolve using this page's "Accuracy (%)" column? Does getting 45% on the text-only subset count (eg o3-mini-high is at 13%)?
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
81% chance
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
29% chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
41% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
61% chance
Will there be a score of 80% or higher on Humanity's Last Exam before April 1, 2025?
9% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
42% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?
70% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
73% chance