Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the combined annualized revenue run rate (the sum of OpenAI's and Anthropic's individual run rates) at year-end 2027 (specifically, figures representing late Q4 2027 such as December 2027).

• Definitions: "Annualized revenue run rate" (also referred to as annual recurring revenue, ARR, or annualized revenue) is defined as either the figure explicitly reported as such by the companies or calculated as the most recently reported monthly revenue multiplied by 12, or quarterly revenue multiplied by 4.

• Source of Truth:

  1. If either company is publicly traded by year-end 2027, official SEC filings, quarterly earnings reports, or official investor presentations will be the primary source.

  2. If either company remains private, the market will resolve based on reports from reputable financial journalism outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Axios, The Information, or The Wall Street Journal) published between December 1, 2027, and February 15, 2028, that cite internal company data or investor briefings.

  3. If reporting provides a range, the midpoint of the range will be used. If reports conflict, the creator will use a consensus or average of the most authoritative reports.

• Edge Cases:

  • If either company is acquired before year-end 2027, its last publicly reported run rate prior to the acquisition (or its divisional run rate at year-end, if disclosed) will be used to calculate the sum.

  • If no reliable run rate data is available for either company by February 15, 2028, the market will resolve N/A.

Background

As of Q3 2026, both OpenAI and Anthropic are seeing rapid revenue acceleration:

• OpenAI: Reached an annualized revenue run rate nearing $70 billion in September 2026.

• Anthropic: Reached an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $65 billion by July 2026.

This put their combined annualized run rate at roughly $135 billion in mid-to-late 2026. Both companies have reportedly filed confidential paperwork in preparation for potential initial public offerings (IPOs), which may result in regular, public financial disclosures by the end of 2027.