Please use all available information about me to make this prediction. I will also answer questions in the comments.
1,000
3.00This market was worded in a confusing way, and my comments attempting to clarify the market were also confusing.
I think it is genuinely ambiguous how this market resolves.
Sources of ambiguity:
Definition of “full time”
Definition of “by the end” for a conditional that can flip many times over a year
Definition of “alignment” given my growing interest in adjacent AI safety subjects.
Thus, N/A.
@ThomasKwa The line’s getting blurry. I think it’s still mostly up-skilling right now, but this might change.
Yes, I am trying to become a full-time AI alignment researcher. I currently work part-time at ARC (evals).
A few scenarios where this market may resolve positive:
I do SERI MATS and then get an alignment job
I directly get an alignment job
I receive funding for independent alignment research
I save enough money to do independent alignment research without funding. In this case, I'd probably only consider myself a full-time alignment researcher if I feel like I am making research progress.
A few scenarios where this market may resolve negative:
I change my mind about AI alignment research being my top priority. Instead, I may decide to focus on evaluations, forecasting, or biosafety
I fail to get a job or funding for alignment research
I decide I want to stay in college vs leaving to work on alignment full-time
I decide I want to focus on up-skilling instead of full-time research
I do full-time alignment research before the end of 2024, but for some reason decide to stop before the end of 2024.
@AlanaXiang Note that if I am doing SERI MATS or a similar mentorship program by the end of 2024, then this market would still resolve positive. However, if I am doing some other AI alignment training program that did not have a major research component, then this market would resolve to negative.