This market was worded in a confusing way, and my comments attempting to clarify the market were also confusing.

I think it is genuinely ambiguous how this market resolves.

Sources of ambiguity:

• Definition of “full time”

• Definition of “by the end” for a conditional that can flip many times over a year

• Definition of “alignment” given my growing interest in adjacent AI safety subjects.

Thus, N/A.

I’m currently funded to do AI alignment research. However, the funding comes in the form of an up-skilling grant. It seems ok to resolve this market to yes, but let me know if you have objections.

@Alana Are you currently producing AI alignment research full time, or upskilling?

@ThomasKwa The line’s getting blurry. I think it’s still mostly up-skilling right now, but this might change.

Liquidating across manifold

I'm going to sell some YES shares and use the money to subsidize the market.

@AlanaXiang Bought back :)

Sold back to 84 for now. Want some extra liquidity.

@AlanaXiang Bought back to 85 :)

I have subsidized this market with M50 of additional liquidity.

Are you trying to become a full-time AI alignment researcher? What's stopping you? (Or are you already one?)

@KatjaGrace

Yes, I am trying to become a full-time AI alignment researcher. I currently work part-time at ARC (evals).

A few scenarios where this market may resolve positive:

• I do SERI MATS and then get an alignment job

• I directly get an alignment job

• I receive funding for independent alignment research

• I save enough money to do independent alignment research without funding. In this case, I'd probably only consider myself a full-time alignment researcher if I feel like I am making research progress.

A few scenarios where this market may resolve negative:

• I change my mind about AI alignment research being my top priority. Instead, I may decide to focus on evaluations, forecasting, or biosafety

• I fail to get a job or funding for alignment research

• I decide I want to stay in college vs leaving to work on alignment full-time

• I decide I want to focus on up-skilling instead of full-time research

• I do full-time alignment research before the end of 2024, but for some reason decide to stop before the end of 2024.

@AlanaXiang Note that if I am doing SERI MATS or a similar mentorship program by the end of 2024, then this market would still resolve positive. However, if I am doing some other AI alignment training program that did not have a major research component, then this market would resolve to negative.

@AlanaXiang The dates here don’t match the title. Please defer to the title.