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I don’t want to resolve just yet (want a bit more time to reflect).

Currently, I feel that my year away from school has given me some pretty incredible insights (into myself and the world) and experiences that I wouldn’t want to give up.

While I am a little sad about missing out on school, it currently feels to me like it was pretty worth it.

I’m liquidating a bunch of positions across manifold.

Come on, what is this, you guys need to just update all the way.

@AlanaXiang seems like at least a 40% chance of ending up not doing meaningful work or achieving much and ending up regretting missing out? (I still think this is a good decision in expectation, I'm short here because of the odds).

Although actually a relevant question here - how often do you regret big decisions? The main factor here seems depend more on your likelihood of regretting things with a given outcome than on the actual outcome.

@ShakedKoplewitz

seems like at least a 40% chance of ending up not doing meaningful work or achieving much and ending up regretting missing out? (I still think this is a good decision in expectation, I'm short here because of the odds).

Even in this case, I expect that I'd still gain meaningful skills (compared to counterfactual).

I think the primary mechanism for regretting this is if I end up in some sort of financial hole.

Although actually a relevant question here - how often do you regret big decisions?

Define big? I think I tend to regret not doing things more.

Some of my regrets:

• Not devoting more time to programming in middle/high school

• Not learning more math in high school

• Spending too much time on Discord (mostly also in high school)

• Not taking AI risk seriously in high school

• Not applying to the previous SERI MATS cohort in my first year at college

• Overcommitting to things in college this quarter

Let me think of some big decisions I've made:

• Spent a lot of money on contest math tutoring on a whim. I'm very happy I did this. It helped me see math in a healthier way.

• Getting into a serious relationship in my freshman year of college. Going well so far. Trade on that here: https://manifold.markets/AlanaXiang/i-am-still-in-my-current-relationsh

• Taking hard courses in college while refusing to optimize for my GPA. This one might've had the most negative impact on me so far, mostly by creating stress. I'm not sure if I regret this yet.

I'll try to think of more things.

@AlanaXiang Also, 40% seems high? What's the base rate for ambitious people setting out to spend a year doing meaningful work, and then achieving nothing?

@AlanaXiang in competitive fields like that? Gotta be much higher than 40%, the average elite internship project is fairly useless (although in fairness they're only there for 2-3 months, not a full year. But otoh AI safety seems less tractable than the average intern project). I'd give it over 90% for just that.

My estimate for you getting something meaningful out of it is much higher though, since like you pointed out you can gain meaningful skills and experience, which I think is more likely than not.

@ShakedKoplewitz (I should actually be explicit that my bet here isn't one I especially expect to pay off, I don't think I have much of an edge and am mostly betting for the heck of it/for practice on this one).

@ShakedKoplewitz

I'd give it over 90% for just that.

AI safety might have a bunch more low-hanging fruit than commodity trading though.

My estimate for you getting something meaningful out of it is much higher

This is why I bet up to 90% at the beginning. I still think that's right.

I should actually be explicit that my bet here isn't one I especially expect to pay off, I don't think I have much of an edge and am mostly betting for the heck of it/for practice on this one

I appreciate this kinda disclaimer.

I appreciate your input :)

If I take a leave of absence from college for the entirety of 2023, will I be glad I did so by the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition