Does long-term medical stimulant use (for ADHD) have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects? Resolves to judgement end of 2024.
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If any of the following stimulants are likely (by my judgement at resolution time) to, at medicinal doses, have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects, then this market resolves to Yes.

  • Adderall

  • Ritalin/Concerta

  • Vyvanse

  • Dexedrine

  • Desoxyn

The bar for "significant" is slightly higher for mood/personality changes than problem solving/executive function/learning speed.

"Sticky" means that it's difficult to reverse the changes even if you stop taking the medication.

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Man as insurance.

@Tassilo *Mana (autocorrection is great)

Does "sticky" have to be permanent? I can definitely tell you after long term daily stimulant that it can take many months to go "back to normal".

@jonsimon Sticky doesn’t have to be permanent. I don’t think o(months) counts though. If it’s o(years) I think that’s obviously sticky. I think if it’s o(months) and quite bad, I might say it’s sticky too.

What about: doubles your chances of Parkinson’s disease, but still with a very low rate of occurrence?

@EMcNeill I think this doesn’t hit my bar for significant. Maybe I should give a number in dollars to represent “significant.”

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