Does long-term medical stimulant use (for ADHD) have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects? Resolves to judgement end of 2024.
12
31
Ṁ270
Dec 31
24%
chance

If any of the following stimulants are likely (by my judgement at resolution time) to, at medicinal doses, have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects, then this market resolves to Yes.

  • Adderall

  • Ritalin/Concerta

  • Vyvanse

  • Dexedrine

  • Desoxyn

The bar for "significant" is slightly higher for mood/personality changes than problem solving/executive function/learning speed.

"Sticky" means that it's difficult to reverse the changes even if you stop taking the medication.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

6 Comments
10 Holders
16 Trades
Sort by:
bought Ṁ0 of YES

Man as insurance.

@Tassilo *Mana (autocorrection is great)

Does "sticky" have to be permanent? I can definitely tell you after long term daily stimulant that it can take many months to go "back to normal".

@jonsimon Sticky doesn’t have to be permanent. I don’t think o(months) counts though. If it’s o(years) I think that’s obviously sticky. I think if it’s o(months) and quite bad, I might say it’s sticky too.

What about: doubles your chances of Parkinson’s disease, but still with a very low rate of occurrence?

@EMcNeill I think this doesn’t hit my bar for significant. Maybe I should give a number in dollars to represent “significant.”

Related questions