An AI forecaster calls me “well-calibrated” before the end of 2023

4

130Ṁ73

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Ancient Markets

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ20
2		Ṁ16

People are also trading

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Sort by:

Who qualifies as an AI forecaster? I have opinions on AI and will call you 'well calibrated' if I can bet YES and make some mana 😛

@AngolaMaldives What about “you need to either be employed as an AI forecaster, or have published research on AI forecasting.”

@AlanaXiang Sounds fine, just put that in the description.

An AI forecaster calls me “well-calibrated” before the end of 2023, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

People are also trading

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Related questions

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules