Background

1. What is USAMO? The USA Mathematical Olympiad is a two-day proof contest consisting of six problems worth 7 points each (42 points total). It is widely regarded as the hardest high-school math exam in the United States

2. Why it matters: Unlike short-answer math benchmarks (e.g. GSM8K), USAMO requires multi-page proofs—demanding creativity, rigor, and long-horizon reasoning similar to the International Math Olympiad

3. Benchmarking platform: The MathArena project publishes uncontaminated, post-release leaderboards for new math competitions, grading each AI solution multiple times and reporting pass@1 style accuracies

State of Play:

1. DeepSeek-R1-0528: 30.1%

2. Gemini 2.5 Pro: 24.4%

3. Human: ≳ 90%

Why this milestone matters

• Proof-level mastery: 95 % implies solving at least five of six Olympiad proofs matching elite human contestants

• Economic & scientific spill-overs: Breakthroughs in formal proof and symbolic reasoning could accelerate research automation in STEM.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the calendar year in which ALL of the following occur:

1. Score ≥ 95 % on any official USAMO held after the model’s public release.

2. Verification — the result is confirmed by either

   1. a peer-reviewed paper on arXiv, or

   2. an official MathArena leaderboard entry or an equivalently rigorous public board.

3. Autonomy — unlimited compute/tools are fine; no hidden human guidance.

Fine print

• If no qualifying run is verified by Jan 1, 2033, the market resolves to “Not Applicable.”