In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench?
6
150Ṁ2552030
10%
2026-
17%
2027
19%
2028
22%
2029
10%
2030
22%
2031+
The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/. Resolution will be determined by the official results published on that benchmark page. If no AI system reaches 90% accuracy by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "2031+".
Top score as of 2025.12.02 is 33% by gpt-5 high.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
11/18/27
In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
2/11/32
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
15% chance
In what year will AI achieve 90% of progress in TextQuests benchmark?
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
2% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
2036
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
4% chance
Which AI lab will have the highest Sudoku-Bench score by March 1, 2026?
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
4/8/29
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
11/3/28