Background

The idea that a machine might one day have phenomenal consciousness - subjective experience, not just sophisticated Behavior - has moved from philosophy to mainstream research in neuroscience, cognitive science and AI. Yet there is no universally accepted test. For market purposes we therefore anchor the bet to a public declaration by a recognized body of experts.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve to YES if a formal declaration is publicly released by a group of experts, stating that computers should be considered to possess consciousness.

Each of these criteria must be met:

1. The declaration must be an official, publicly released document by a reputable institution or published in a peer reviewed science journal with impact factor ≥ 5.

2. The declaration must be signed by at least 10 experts.

3. Each signatory must hold a PhD from an accredited university and in a relevant field (e.g., neuroscience, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, philosophy of mind).

4. Each signatory must hold a faculty or research position at an accredited university or major research institution or reputable company.

Fine Print:

If no declaration meeting all criteria is released before Jan 1, 2100 the market resolves to "Not Applicable".