Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A public early access launch counts as YES for resolution.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, June 2026 and May 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (71 traders, as of Apr 3, 2026).

Will X/Twitter Payments (peer to peer) be launched before (month)? Unlinked market

MANIFOLD

Will X/Twitter Payments (peer to peer) be launched before (month)? Unlinked market

Ṁ2.6kṀ31k

May 1

ALL

35%

May 2026

67%

June 2026

Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A public early access launch counts as YES for resolution.

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sold Ṁ85 YES

@PoliticalEconomyPK Does a public early access count as YES? Thanks

@xjp yes

@PoliticalEconomyPK Any notes on e.g.
Whether an open beta launch counts?
Does it have to be open to almost anyone (presumably excluding people who are bankrupt or criminals is ok?) in US to join?
Does it have to be open to people in majority of countries to join?