YES = if multiple reliable sources confirm that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine entirely. Temporary halts to recuperate will not count.
The current consensus seems to be that Wagner Group are not involved in combat operations in Ukraine.
Based on the earlier survey, I will wait for a month after market close to resolve this. But as it stands (which could change), the market will very likely resolve YES. However, if Wagner Group resumes operations in Ukraine before resolution, then this market will resolve NO (as the halt in operation would be deemed temporary).
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UK lawmakers say Wagner Group is like an ‘international criminal mafia’ | The Hill
UK Parliament released a report on Wagner : Guns for gold: the Wagner Network exposed - Foreign Affairs Committee (parliament.uk)
@BTE And, cherry on top, yevgeny prigozhin isn't dead or in prison, as a bunch of people seemed to think he was
@ShadowyZephyr I must say I am baffled by the way Putin handled this whole thing. Doesn’t make even a little bit of sense to me.
@ShadowyZephyr The Guardian isn’t prone to conspiracy theories and their language could not be any clearer that this whole video is sketchy as all heck https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/19/video-appears-to-show-wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-addressing-fighters-in-belarus
The current consensus seems to be that Wagner Group are not involved in combat operations in Ukraine based on assessments by the US DoD and Russian sources [1, 3]. Further, Russia’s MoD said that it was wrapping up the handover of military assets from Wagner to the regular army [2].
Based on the earlier survey, I will wait for a month after market close to resolve this. But as it stands (which could change), the market will very likely resolve YES. However, if Wagner Group resumes operations in Ukraine before resolution, then this market will resolve NO (as the halt in operation would be deemed temporary).
[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2023
@Akzzz123 I understand why you'd want to wait resolving this market. However, it is really inconvienent to have my mana locked up for a month. My position is too big to get out without taking a big loss. Please consider resolving the market at or a few days after close to the current consensus. If it turns out it was wrong you can always re-resolve later.
Alternatively, please keep the market open until resolution so I can try to get out over the next weeks.
@Akzzz123
If the resolution is clear, then I don't think waiting a month would be necessary. Originally, when asked about if there should be an extension or not and of how long, it was with the context that things were unclear. As of right now, it's quite clear with a yes resolution and, if nothing changes from now till the end of month, and there isn't any ambiguity, then there's no need to add ab extension to clear anything up.
if Wagner Group resumes operations in Ukraine before resolution, then this market will resolve NO (as the halt in operation would be deemed temporary).
Just by the quote above, if it doesnt resolve by say august 25th and Wagner ends up back in ukraine, it seems that you would resolve it as a no.
I don't think that rule should be added because it changes what the question is asking. The original question of "will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of jul2023?" should only include events and dates that occur within the month of july.
let me know if im incorrect on my reading of it.
Wagner Announces Closure of Russian Base - The Moscow Times
Closure of the Russian Base that Wagner held as their main base to redeploy elsewhere. They are moving to the Belarus camp.
Satellite imagery reveals latest movement of Wagner Group | CNN
Moving to Belarus with satellite proof of the convoy + images of the camp
Wagner: Satellite images reveal Belarus camp arrival - BBC News
A large convoy of suspected Wagner fighters has arrived from Russia at a new camp in Belarus, new satellite images reveal.
BBC Verify's analysis shows dozens of vehicles entering the camp at Tsel, a disused military base in southern Belarus - about 64 miles (103km) from the capital Minsk.
Belarus claims Wagner mercenaries are helping to train its defence forces | Euronews
The government in Belarus claims Wagner fighters are training its defence forces as more of the mercenaries are reported to have moved to the country as part of the deal brokered by President Lukashenko
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
ISW: The Wagner Group continues to prepare to establish a permanent presence in Belarus.
This doesn't necessarily mean that they are not operating in Ukraine anymore, but I think closing down their main base in Russia and moving to Belarus is something to monitor. If they all move to Belarus, then operations in ukraine ceased for sure.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66211121
Everything is shrouded in mystery. There are a few hundred wagners supposedly in Belarus, and the others are... where? The Pentagon says that they aren't fighting, and Prigozhin seems to have disappeared.
I feel like to be "operating" they actually have to be on the frontlines, and it's unclear whether they are or not, so maybe this should resolve PROB if we don't know by the end of July.
@ShadowyZephyr I won't be too surprised if Putin uses the fog of war and the idea of Wagner's compromised operational status to form another offensive against Ukraine from Belarus. He could take a position where he looked like he had been weakened and use it to split Ukrainian forces.
@Abraxas also in that same interview he says they don't exist.. so... Putin says Wagner group ‘doesn’t exist' - YouTube
can't really operate if it doesn't exist
@higherLEVELING Yeahhhh it's an odd interview haha. They are training people, there's a potential new leader selected, also they don't exist ❓ 🤷♂️
@Abraxas That might be a language disconnect/issue. You might suppose Putin to say that "Wagner Group as it once existed doesn't exist".
@SemioticRivalry Halt its operations. What are its operations? Engaging in warfare. Just existing in Ukraine isn't an operation from my perspective.
@ShadowyZephyr A military unit doesn't have to shoot at people to be operating in a theater of warfare (in this case Ukraine). Merely existing near the front-line as part of an armed, organized unit means you are involved in the theater of warfare. Otherwise, the vast majority of both the Ukrainian and Russian armies wouldn't be involved in the theater at any specific time.
@SemioticRivalry they wouldnt be able to shoot without weapons..
Wagner has handed over thousands of tonnes of weaponry, says Russia | Russia | The Guardian
@higherLEVELING Even if we take the MoD at its word, it's highly likely that this isn't the total combat power of Wagner.
@SemioticRivalry what about pentagon saying they arent engaging in any significant way Wagner forces not engaged in Ukraine in any significant way, Pentagon says | Reuters