Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
Related:
These have pretty similar resolution criteria, and since August is over, "the next attempt" or "a attempt" is the same. What am I missing? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@LaurenzHemmen imo they're the same too. Don't worry, I fixed it :D Thanks for the heads up for free arbitrage!
tbh I've been arbitraging these markets a few times now, I guess people don't really search for arbitrage very often.
I can’t read