Result of the Rootclaim challenge on origins of Covid-19: Saar Wilf (lab origin) vs Peter Miller (natural origin)
resolved Feb 21
Both natural origin
Both lab origin
One lab, one natural origin
One lab, one undecided
One natural origin, one undecided
Both undecided

Resolution based on the final result that is announced once all debates have concluded.


The judges have been chosen, and money is in escrow. The debate should start in the next few weeks and videos will most likely come out in December. The judges will not be publicly named until the debate concludes and they've made their decision.

We will hold 3 debate sessions. The first will likely focus more on the market, the second more on the lab, and the third will try to wrap things up and resolve which origin is more likely.

Each judge will choose which of two origins of covid is more likely: natural origin or gain of function research. Each judge may also vote undecided if they think both are equally likely, but they are discouraged from doing so. If both judges are undecided, we will be required to hold a 4th debate to try to resolve the issue.

The winner will receive $100,000 for a unanimous decision. If one judge is undecided, the payout will be $50,000. There's also a possibility that neither side wins anything, if both judges are undecided or it's a split decision with one judge voting natural and the other voting for gain of function.

Chris Billington created 2 markets to bet on the outcome on Manifold.

I've been betting in those markets under my name (Peter Miller).

EDIT: I cannot resolve this since I've deleted my account and the API prohibits me from resolving this. Users with the ability to resolve this, please do so.

Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

@Akzzz123 This should resolve to "both natural origin" now that judges have posted their rulings

@Joshua Ah, I see AK can't resolve due to the new rules for deleted accounts. I've done so for him, and given him a five star rating. Good market!

When is this going to be resolved?

Another one month extension, please?

For anyone voting for a split decision here, there's also this market to bet which judge is more favorable to lab vs natural:

Are you going to extend the date on this, @Akzzz123 ?


Deleted account page

This user has been deleted.


Thanks for extending this, @Akzzz123.

And welcome back, I was worried we'd lost you.

Market about the close date: /marktwse/when-will-the-judgement-of-the-root

@marktwse Maybe we need a new version of this market, now that AK is gone?
I might suggest 2 separate markets, one to bet on how Eric votes and one for how Will votes, each with a choice for natural/lab/undecided.
I'd make them myself but seems better for me to not be the one running the markets.

Might need another bracket for "escrow person takes all the money and runs"