Resolution based on the final result that is announced once all debates have concluded.

Context:

The judges have been chosen, and money is in escrow. The debate should start in the next few weeks and videos will most likely come out in December. The judges will not be publicly named until the debate concludes and they've made their decision.

We will hold 3 debate sessions. The first will likely focus more on the market, the second more on the lab, and the third will try to wrap things up and resolve which origin is more likely.

Each judge will choose which of two origins of covid is more likely: natural origin or gain of function research. Each judge may also vote undecided if they think both are equally likely, but they are discouraged from doing so. If both judges are undecided, we will be required to hold a 4th debate to try to resolve the issue.

The winner will receive $100,000 for a unanimous decision. If one judge is undecided, the payout will be $50,000. There's also a possibility that neither side wins anything, if both judges are undecided or it's a split decision with one judge voting natural and the other voting for gain of function.

Chris Billington created 2 markets to bet on the outcome on Manifold.

I've been betting in those markets under my name (Peter Miller).

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/14ngubx/seeking_judges_for_a_debate_on_covids_origins/k55zz7v/

EDIT: I cannot resolve this since I've deleted my account and the API prohibits me from resolving this. Users with the ability to resolve this, please do so.