Will the main COVID origin market move by +/- 10 pp following the verdict of the Rootclaim Challenge debate?

Question

Context

The main market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)The Rootclaim challenge is the object of two markets:

@/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal

@/Akzzz123/result-of-the-rootclaim-challenge-o

Resolution

This market resolves YES if, within a week following the publication of the verdict of the debate (tbd but expected early December), the probability of the main market changes by 10 or more percentage points either up or down and, for at least one continuous 24-hour period, it stays at, above, or below the new probability.

Notes

I will ignore transient spikes.

I will only use displayed percentages and integers.

The baseline to assess the change will be the most recent probability before the verdict of the debate is published.

I will not trade in this market.

I will provide clarifications as needed and update the description accordingly.

Example

If, before publication, the probability is 73%, this market resolves YES if, within a week (= 7 x 24 hours) after publication, there is a continuous 24-hour period when the probability is at least 83% or at most 63% (not counting transient spikes).

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Feb 25, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.