My friends are having a debate about whether the rhythm method will work as birth control for Romy.
Romy is having a whole bunch of sex with a relatively new boyfriend. She already got pregnant (and aborted) once due to misreading an ovulation test strip. She feels confident that she won't get pregnant again by using the rhythm method. She's not on birth control and they don't use condoms.
Aaron is suspicious and thinks she's seriously risking another pregnancy. They're debating so I told them I'm making a prediction market.
If Romy intentionally gets pregnant, this will resolve to no (but she reports definitely not wanting to have a baby before February)
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,221 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,845 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,112 | |
| 4 | Ṁ908 | |
| 5 | Ṁ816 |
@AriZerner I guess the question is whether you think that these yes buys represent something other than true beliefs (eg emotional hedges) in more than 3% of worlds
@AndrewG 10k YES order at 90% for an hour if you wanna buy more (I don't have insider info)
@Kire_ oof
@Romy I highly recommend you read this for future reference
You Probably Don’t Understand Contraceptive Pregnancy Rates | by Aaron Hamlin | Medium
tldr: you gotta layer multiple methods with absolutely perfect use to not have a really high chance of pregnancy
@Enlil I second that this market would be better resolving NA than NO in case of purposeful pregnancy
@mongo too late, this was clear in description and is what people have traded on. Price it in 😘 And/or create a second market with those conditions.
@HenriThunberg I went ahead and created the secondary market
https://manifold.markets/mongo/will-aellas-friend-accidentally-get