Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2022?
113
1.3kṀ18kresolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2022, then this market will resolve YES. We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2022 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2022.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ444 | |
| 2 | Ṁ166 | |
| 3 | Ṁ110 | |
| 4 | Ṁ99 | |
| 5 | Ṁ99 |
People are also trading
Sort by:
$1k (dollars, not Manifold dollars) for me to write up my (definitely imperfect, probably highly offensive, possibly very wrong) reasoning behind being the biggest no position on this market. This offer does not expire. I can be poked on Twitter @NunoSempere.
I am not making the claim that my reasoning would be worth that amount, merely that I would be happy to provide it for that amount.
@NuñoSempere literally thousands of people would be happy to provide their reasoning of no to me for way less than 1k
General relevant info in regards to practical search (tho might not be most relevant thing to search success?):
https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1519362966336020481
https://aella.substack.com/p/what-i-learned-from-my-date-me-experiment
nate's 'why u should date aella' doc: https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/12hhUk7ZStHDwpOJ7rh5ofYMzCKhd-U9zSuF_aKJEWlo/mobilebasic
my 'what i'm looing for' doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OnUkVxfc04CTFqjJRexyCUGtIYxOT3-sUXAEYzEACVo/edit?fbclid=IwAR2R6EaUxBSh_UzuVO3b-YWpOdieRuylzPL3sFbjsloQsEtT9jzi4GugLHQ
I am actively looking for one, pretty hard - I've been going on a bunch of dates and trying different methods. I have been trying this for a while, though, and had a couple near successes but no full blown luck. I think there's a few factors that make finding someone I'm happy with, to be harder than average.
@Aella Not sure if you'd like to share this info (or if you already have elsewhere), but to help people estimate a base rate, you could (a) share how many times in the past (or some period going backwards; doesn't have to go back forever) you and a new romantic partner would have ended up estimating at least a 40% chance on average that you would "end up trying a life partnership thing," and (b) share the number of months (in that period) during which you were actively trying to find someone to try out the life partnership thing with.
E.g. You might say that you've actively tried for a total of 28 months over the last 5 years and found 2 partners from that with whom you would have together estimated at least a 40% chance of eventually trying a life partnership thing (if you had in fact made estimates), which would give a rough base rate of 1 every 14 months.
From here you could improve on the estimate by weighting based on how hard you were trying, perhaps by weighting by how many new people you were considering whom you assigned >5% to eventually trying the life partnership thing with, or by how many dates with new people you went on, and then forecast how many new people or dates you expect to consider or go on in 2022.
How is this so low?
Compare this to Austin's market (https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a) which sits at 66% chance right now
Aella has 100x to 10000x relationship-market-value as Austin. Mostly from increased hotness, relationship experience, social capital, and emotional intelligence. You can probably quantify this more precisely by comparing the # submissions to Aella's dating survey (in the hundreds?) to what you'd expect Austin to get in a similarly cumbersome relationship survey (zero. maybe 5 in a less-cumbersome survey).
Aella is much more proactive about dating (and the steps after) compared to Austin.
The only thing counting against is this question is it's asking further along the funnel, and also that Aella is more picky about partners than Austin is. My intuition is that bf to [40% chance life partner] only eliminates 80% of bfs.
@Sinclair I bought no because many men - probably a large majority - will quite heavily penalise women in sex work/porn for a relationship. Coupled with Aella's likely high standards due to the many qualities you identified above and a mismatch in her expectations versus what may be available to her is a significant factor to consider. Aella if you see this I hope it doesn't sound harsh. You are obviously a huge catch.
@Fred I think that's already heavily filtered out by the social filter bubbles that surround us all
@Sinclair Hmmm possibly but questionable. If you look at some of David Buss' surveys on male preferences for example these seem like a pretty universal instincts.
What's the arbitrage angle here?
https://manifold.markets/TheresaBarton/aella-girl-will-be-elon-musks-girlf