Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2022?
26%
chance
Dec 31
M$4,117 bet
If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2022, then this market will resolve YES. We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2022 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2022.
NuñoSempere

Nuño Sempere bought M$1,000 of NO9 days ago

Base rate not in favour.
WilliamKiely

William Kiely bought M$1 of NO16 days ago

Naively my inside view guess would be ~25%, but I expect other market participants have much better information than I do, so it's not rational for me to participate.
Undox

Undox sold M$104 of YES17 days ago

Sinclair, this market is talking virtually engagement level commitment, and the other could be as casual as a couple of hook ups with the same person would resolve it.
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen is betting YES at 39% 17 days ago

@Undox Austin wouldn't consider someone he's casually hooking up with to be his girlfriend
Undox

Undox 16 days ago

@Sinclair Ah OK! Good to know
DavidChee

SirSalty bought M$100 of YES17 days ago

Ok well with that info in mind imma switch my answer! Hopefully ur activeness in pursuing something overcomes the factors getting in the way! Good luck!!
Aella

Aella ​ is betting NO at 37% 17 days ago

I am actively looking for one, pretty hard - I've been going on a bunch of dates and trying different methods. I have been trying this for a while, though, and had a couple near successes but no full blown luck. I think there's a few factors that make finding someone I'm happy with, to be harder than average.
WilliamKiely

William Kiely 16 days ago

@Aella Not sure if you'd like to share this info (or if you already have elsewhere), but to help people estimate a base rate, you could (a) share how many times in the past (or some period going backwards; doesn't have to go back forever) you and a new romantic partner would have ended up estimating at least a 40% chance on average that you would "end up trying a life partnership thing," and (b) share the number of months (in that period) during which you were actively trying to find someone to try out the life partnership thing with. E.g. You might say that you've actively tried for a total of 28 months over the last 5 years and found 2 partners from that with whom you would have together estimated at least a 40% chance of eventually trying a life partnership thing (if you had in fact made estimates), which would give a rough base rate of 1 every 14 months. From here you could improve on the estimate by weighting based on how hard you were trying, perhaps by weighting by how many new people you were considering whom you assigned >5% to eventually trying the life partnership thing with, or by how many dates with new people you went on, and then forecast how many new people or dates you expect to consider or go on in 2022.
DavidChee

SirSalty bought M$5 of NO17 days ago

Are u actively looking for one? I feel like that surely plays a large part of what the probability should be.
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen bought M$50 of YES17 days ago

How is this so low? Compare this to Austin's market (https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a) which sits at 66% chance right now Aella has 100x to 10000x relationship-market-value as Austin. Mostly from increased hotness, relationship experience, social capital, and emotional intelligence. You can probably quantify this more precisely by comparing the # submissions to Aella's dating survey (in the hundreds?) to what you'd expect Austin to get in a similarly cumbersome relationship survey (zero. maybe 5 in a less-cumbersome survey). Aella is much more proactive about dating (and the steps after) compared to Austin. The only thing counting against is this question is it's asking further along the funnel, and also that Aella is more picky about partners than Austin is. My intuition is that bf to [40% chance life partner] only eliminates 80% of bfs.
Fred

Fred is betting NO at 39% 16 days ago

@Sinclair I bought no because many men - probably a large majority - will quite heavily penalise women in sex work/porn for a relationship. Coupled with Aella's likely high standards due to the many qualities you identified above and a mismatch in her expectations versus what may be available to her is a significant factor to consider. Aella if you see this I hope it doesn't sound harsh. You are obviously a huge catch.
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen is betting YES at 41% 16 days ago

@Fred I think that's already heavily filtered out by the social filter bubbles that surround us all
Fred

Fred is betting NO at 43% 16 days ago

@Sinclair Hmmm possibly but questionable. If you look at some of David Buss' surveys on male preferences for example these seem like a pretty universal instincts.
ian

Ian bought M$20 of YES17 days ago

Go get em, tiger!
agrippa

agrippa bought M$3 of YES17 days ago

Let's get a free response market going
ian

Ian bought M$1 of YES17 days ago

Yes, this would add a bounty for the right intro! I.e. some submits an answer & bets on it, then makes the intro