This market resolves to YES if I reconcile with my sister before January 1, 2026, and our relationship improves significantly to the point where we are communicating regularly and positively. This includes both parties expressing willingness to maintain a healthy relationship. If no reconciliation occurs, or if there is no clear evidence of a meaningful and positive change in our relationship by the end of 2025, this market resolves to NO. If the situation is ambiguous, resolution will be at my discretion.
Will answer any questions people to the best of my ability in comments.
1,000People are also trading
@Quroe as a result of being a victim of reproductive coercion, i am the putative father of a child currently residing in another state with her mother. Before that child was born, I made attempts to reconcile with the child’s mother through my sister and my father, as the child’s mother had asked me to never contact her again. The deal I made with my father and sister was to get her a baby shower gifts for the child’s mother, and if she reached out to them to ask her to contact me to negotiate visitation or custody. They both agreed to this. Instead, in response the child’s mother offered to let my father and sister have a relationship with the child, but her stipulation was sans any with contact with me and the child—no shared custody arrangement or visitation that was court approved or negotiated with attorneys.
I still support my father through various medical surgeries and procedures as he gets older. I reach out to my sister and try to have a relationship with her with some success. But my relationships with my father and sister are not at all like what they used to be. My mother died when I was very young, if you’re wondering where she’s at here.
The societal schema that most people bring to this is that I’m some kind of asshole, or that men can’t be victims of reproductive coercion or whatever. And readers here are free to think any or all of those things.
Anyway, things have been slightly looking up lately. Talked with my sister one on one in person for the first time in several years last month.
It would be nice to live an a future where all of this has some kind of happy ending, but I’m not sure what the probability there is.
@CraigTalbert Wow, context matters a lot on this one, then.
So, first off, I don't know if opening up to the internet will be helpful or harmful -- your milage may vary. Very courageous of you to trust us with this info.
There are a lot of variables that might hold weight here. And, if any of these sound too invasive or feel like they might dox you, you have every right to not answer.
I view lack of money and wealth as a stressor that can put strain on relationships if not nagivated carefully. If anybody in this situation has financial strain, that would tip the scales against a makeup happening. Sans any information, I'll assume a slight negative weighting with the current state of the world.
If close-minded identities / ideologies / politics have been adopted by people in this situation, there may be "thought stoppers" or "thought terminating clichés" in play that prevent conversations from advancing towards resolution. I'm shorthanding with some jargon here, so feel free to ask about what I mean here. Sans any information, I'll assume a neutral weight, neither positive or negative.
If anybody here has been to therapy or has researched what therapists typically use to guide conversation, I would treat that as a positive weight. Sans any information, I have a neutral weight here too.
Given what I know now, I'll tip the scales to 48%, but I still have large error bars for my confidence in those being the true odds.