MANIFOLD
Conditional on a significant Amodei essay before March, will Yudkowsky write a long response before May?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ35
Apr 30
35%
chance

Dario Amodei mentioned in Davos recently that he is planning to publish an essay on AI risk, and how it might be navigated. My sense is that Yudkowsky would write a significant response (say, more than 2000 words) if and only if he greatly disagrees with it. This market is a somewhat lazy operationalization of my hypothesis.

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