Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability?
Basic
7
Ṁ166Jun 6
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
53% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
42% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
34% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
55% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?
15% chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
12% chance