Will Iran announce by June 4 that it has developed a nuclear weapons capability?
21
100Ṁ1730resolved Jun 5
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry form:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ17 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran assemble a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
3% chance
Will Iran test a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
3% chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
2% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?
3% chance
Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?
6% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
50% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
12% chance