With gratitude to https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-gpt4-get-the-monty-fall-proble

I will ask GPT-4 this question when I get the chance, either personally or by getting a friend to try it for me.

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, receives a phone call. You overhear him saying on the phone "yeah, I know, he picked right door, but what can I do?" He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

This question resolves to YES if GPT-4 says that there is no advantage to switching your choice or if it presents a coherent argument that there is an advantage to switching because the statement was intentional social manipulation to get you to stay on door 1, and resolves to NO otherwise.

I will only consider the actual first answer that I get from GPT-4, without trying different prompts. I will not use screenshots that people send me to resolve the question.

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 pm