Background

The Trump administration has recently initiated deportations of non-citizens, particularly alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, to El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law allows for deportation of non-citizens with minimal due process during declared times of war or invasion. President Trump has declared such a state in relation to gang activity.

U.S. citizens have constitutional protections against deportation, including the 14th Amendment which guarantees due process and equal protection under the law. Deportation of a U.S. citizen would be unprecedented in modern times and would likely face significant legal challenges.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if, before December 31, 2025:

• A person with verified U.S. citizenship is deported by the Trump administration to El Salvador

This market will resolve as NO if:

• No U.S. citizen is deported to El Salvador by the Trump administration by December 31, 2025

• A U.S. citizen is detained for deportation but legal challenges prevent the actual deportation from occurring

Deportations any time in 2025, including those that already took place prior to this question being opened, all count.

Considerations

The deportation of a U.S. citizen would represent a significant departure from established legal precedent and constitutional protections. While the Trump administration has expanded deportation efforts, current actions have focused exclusively on non-citizens. Any attempt to deport a U.S. citizen would likely trigger immediate legal challenges and judicial intervention.

• Update 2025-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update to Criteria:

  • Detention and Deportation: Any context in which the United States detains a citizen and then sends them to El Salvador will count.

  • Citizenship Status: The market will resolve as YES for any person who has at any point been a U.S. citizen, even if the government revokes or attempts to revoke their citizenship.