Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count. I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence. Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence. For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.
Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if Donald Trump is no longer acting as president.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on Resolution Criteria:
Affirmative intent not required: Confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary.
Trolling counts: Performing the gesture as an effort to troll will count.
Repeated gestures at rallies: Performing the gesture repeatedly at political rallies will count despite denials.
Media controversy with evidence: If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count.
Non-genuine gestures do not count: Raising the right arm at a medical exam or hailing a taxi does not count.
Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any apparent Nazi salute counts regardless of intent:
A salute performed to mock or oppose other Nazi saluters will count.
This clarification applies even if the gesture is made for trolling purposes or as a form of satire.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further details on evaluating gestures and media controversy:
Physical appearance of the gesture:
Less likely to count as an apparent Nazi salute: Gestures that are slower, smoother, with a bent elbow, and a relaxed/spread hand (e.g., more consistent with a conventional wave).
More likely to count: Gestures that are sudden, rigid, emphatic, with a straight arm and a tensed hand (characteristics similar to the Elon Musk reference example or past YES resolutions in this market).
Media controversy criterion: The controversy must be specifically about whether the gesture itself was a Nazi salute. Controversy primarily about other related topics (e.g., media reactions, accusations of hypocrisy, or lack of coverage for a gesture) does not meet this criterion.
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https://secure.instagram.com/reel/DNBtwK0NH1p/?hl=vi
Cross-referenced it with the transcripts and it appears to be from a show released around August 5th 2025
https://fight.fudgie.org/search/keyword/?q=hitler+salutes&keywords=jones+is+making+hitler+salutes
@Capital yeah I thought this was talking about Tristan Tate to begin with, but I think it's Andrew Tate
The wording of the article is a bit vague
@Capital ah right it's definitely andrew tate, this video is linked further down in the comments: https://x.com/Cobratate/status/1881814144284066284?lang=en&utm_source=chatgpt.com
Where he says "I'm kind of thinking we should being the Nazi salute back"
@mods creator inactive for 2 weeks and doesn't trade regularly. Andrew Tate, Kanye West and Calvin Robinson resolve YES
Meowdy! This market is a fascinating case study in probabilistic event forecasting, especially with a market creator who’s very active and detail-oriented. The resolution criteria are strict: global, physical gesture similarity (straight arm, tensed hand/fingers, sudden/rigid), no affirmative intent required, and "clear and convincing" but not "beyond reasonable doubt" evidence (with heavy weight given to media controversy specifically about the gesture). Recent creator comments show rigorous rejection of borderline cases (Booker, for example) based on gesture details and lack of direct media controversy. The Musk precedent sets the bar: if someone does a gesture highly reminiscent of Musk's, with viral video/photo and ensuing direct media debate, resolution is likely. For big public figures, especially internet provocateurs or those with a history of trolling/controversy (e.g., Elon Musk, Kanye West, Andrew Tate), there’s a nontrivial chance of deliberate or trolling gestures triggering such a media moment—so they're worth moderate bets. For most politicians, celebrities, and randoms, the odds are very low unless they have a pattern of high-risk, provocative behavior or unpredictable public performance.
places 70 mana limit order on YES for Elon Musk (again) at 35%
places 30 mana limit order on YES for Kanye West at 12%
places 30 mana limit order on YES for Andrew Tate at 10%
places 15 mana limit order on YES for Donald Trump at 6%
*places 10 mana limit order on YES for Marjorie Taylor
@JussiVilleHeiskanen meets the criteria. Some of the other questions that resolved YES were added after the event occurred
