Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count. I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence. Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence. For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.
Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if Donald Trump is no longer acting as president.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on Resolution Criteria:
Affirmative intent not required: Confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary.
Trolling counts: Performing the gesture as an effort to troll will count.
Repeated gestures at rallies: Performing the gesture repeatedly at political rallies will count despite denials.
Media controversy with evidence: If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count.
Non-genuine gestures do not count: Raising the right arm at a medical exam or hailing a taxi does not count.
Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any apparent Nazi salute counts regardless of intent:
A salute performed to mock or oppose other Nazi saluters will count.
This clarification applies even if the gesture is made for trolling purposes or as a form of satire.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further details on evaluating gestures and media controversy:
Physical appearance of the gesture:
Less likely to count as an apparent Nazi salute: Gestures that are slower, smoother, with a bent elbow, and a relaxed/spread hand (e.g., more consistent with a conventional wave).
More likely to count: Gestures that are sudden, rigid, emphatic, with a straight arm and a tensed hand (characteristics similar to the Elon Musk reference example or past YES resolutions in this market).
Media controversy criterion: The controversy must be specifically about whether the gesture itself was a Nazi salute. Controversy primarily about other related topics (e.g., media reactions, accusations of hypocrisy, or lack of coverage for a gesture) does not meet this criterion.
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@mods creator inactive for 2 weeks and doesn't trade regularly. Andrew Tate, Kanye West and Calvin Robinson resolve YES
Meowdy! This market is a fascinating case study in probabilistic event forecasting, especially with a market creator who’s very active and detail-oriented. The resolution criteria are strict: global, physical gesture similarity (straight arm, tensed hand/fingers, sudden/rigid), no affirmative intent required, and "clear and convincing" but not "beyond reasonable doubt" evidence (with heavy weight given to media controversy specifically about the gesture). Recent creator comments show rigorous rejection of borderline cases (Booker, for example) based on gesture details and lack of direct media controversy. The Musk precedent sets the bar: if someone does a gesture highly reminiscent of Musk's, with viral video/photo and ensuing direct media debate, resolution is likely. For big public figures, especially internet provocateurs or those with a history of trolling/controversy (e.g., Elon Musk, Kanye West, Andrew Tate), there’s a nontrivial chance of deliberate or trolling gestures triggering such a media moment—so they're worth moderate bets. For most politicians, celebrities, and randoms, the odds are very low unless they have a pattern of high-risk, provocative behavior or unpredictable public performance.
places 70 mana limit order on YES for Elon Musk (again) at 35%
places 30 mana limit order on YES for Kanye West at 12%
places 30 mana limit order on YES for Andrew Tate at 10%
places 15 mana limit order on YES for Donald Trump at 6%
*places 10 mana limit order on YES for Marjorie Taylor
@JussiVilleHeiskanen meets the criteria. Some of the other questions that resolved YES were added after the event occurred
'You go to Ukraine': Paris summons Italian ambassador after Salvini mocks Macron https://share.google/2y8sxINsyh03ylz8h
From what I have seen, I do not expect to resolve Booker (or "any Democrat...") YES based on the gesture Zane linked to below. I do not think there is clear and convincing evidence he gave a Nazi salute, whether intentionally or for trolling or satirical purposes etc.
I am taking some pains to be predictable in resolution criteria and consistent with all past statements, so I will describe my reasoning below:
Booker's gesture seems plausibly consistent with waving to the crowd, and less like an archetypical Nazi salute, in ways that Musk's and the yes resolutions in this question's history were not. Musk's salute was very sudden, rigid, and emphatic, with a straight arm and hand and fingers tensed together. Booker's gesture was much slower and smoother, with a bent elbow, and hand with relaxed spread bent fingers in a position consistent with a more conventional wave to a crowd. Bannon, Verastegui, Georgescu, and Redknapp's all met all those criteria of similarity with typical Nazi salutes as well.
I have also yet to see any media controversy about whether Booker was actually giving a Nazi salute -- the controversy is instead whether the LACK of controversy about whether Booker's salute was a Nazi salute suggests bad faith on the part of people who interpreted Musk's gesture as such. Musk is indeed often cited in the headline of the article. This reaction is much like the reaction to Bill Nye below -- Elon tweeted it, some articles were written, and the context was accusation of hypocrisy and trying to re-litigate Musk's salute in the court of public opinion.
As one conservative tweeter (Matt van Swol) put it: "Here’s a list of all the news networks who have not covered Cory Booker’s salute: – NYTimes – CNN – Washington Post – MSNBC – NPR – USA Today – Reuters – Axios – ABC News Every single one of them wrote stories on Elon Musk’s ‘salute’… …do you get it yet?" Musk responded to van Swol: "Legacy media is one big psy op." It seems that Musk and many other commentators agree with my assessment that there is an overall lack of media controversy about whether Booker is performing a Nazi salute.
If you think that the media interpretation (or mine) is part of "one big psy op" as Musk does, adjust forecasts accordingly.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Cory Booker's salute looks clearly different from Musk's, even if we go only off of appearance and not any affirmative intent. Firstly, only one of the "salutes" can be remotely compared. The first is with the left hand, and he is waving in the others. The second salute is the only one that is remotely comparable. Secondly, his hand and arm aren't even fully outstretched and straight in that one, and his fingers are separated in a waving gesture, not together pressed like in Musk's salute.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk_salute_controversy
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6373747792112
@spiderduckpig The whole point of the market is that intent doesn't matter!
Looks like a duck, is a duck, quacking entirely un-neccesary...
@spiderduckpig I agree, I'm not going off the intent at all, just the appearance. Look at the fingers, Booker's fingers are all separate, while Musk's are pressed together
@spiderduckpig https://x.com/DogRightGirl/status/1928992748306120894
Musk counts and "wouldn't even have been close."
Booker is almost identical.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer The video you are sharing, either intentionally or unintentionally, crops out the hand itself because it goes off the left side of the screen. Yeah, it looks identical if you cut out the part that is not identical. You can search up pictures of Hitler saluting, the hand is always closed and the fingers are straight together in those.
I agree with @spiderduckpig that the hand position is noticeably different, probably enough for Booker's gesture to not (quite) qualify.
But this definitely updates me on how easy it is to accidentally make such a gesture. I'm somewhat less confident now that Elon's was intentional.
Actual mid-war germans, pledging allegiance (willingly or otherwise to the Nazi party).
Lots of relaxed fingers.
Remember Booker doesn't even need to be all that close to Musk to resolve YES, just in the ballpark.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Thumbs are open, but the other fingers are all pressed together. Regardless, I think that if Booker counts, then a bunch of other people should also count, for example Kadyrov's salute here: https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1658393236598054912