This will resolve Friday the 27th of October at 8:30 pm pt.
Ground invasion means Israeli troops ordered on the ground en masse into Gaza Strip.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,604 | |
| 2 | Ṁ835 | |
| 3 | Ṁ611 | |
| 4 | Ṁ439 | |
| 5 | Ṁ432 |
Food for thought
R/neoliberal just opened their mega-thread on the Day 1 of the ground invasion
After reading a couple dozen articles to try to get a clear picture over what happened on Oct 27th. The spirit of the market is around military troops moving into Gaza and staying. While Netanyahu might not like the word invasion, the definition was stated in the description as being solider en masse moving into Gaza.
Unfortunately for this market, it really came down to the wire on what happened when. But again given the spirit of the market, I’ve resolved the market as a binary “yes”. Troops are in Gaza, before 8:30pm pt on Oct 27th and have stayed.
@AaronBailey While this is a tough subject, I’ve enjoyed the short fuse type markets for foreign policy and politics and will strive to make better markets in the future with clearer boundaries. If you like making these markets too, lmk! I’d love to give you a follow.
@Panfilo What are the consequences for being rated 1 star exactly? It’s not like you can’t make new markets as a result.
@MarkHamill The star rating is an effective feedback mechanism to ensure incentives alignment between market creators and participants. It’s absolutely fine to rate according to your opinion of how the market creator handled the evolving situation and whether you as a participant deem their treatment of the resolution fair. It provides them feedback and a impetus to improve their future markets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-ground-invasion.html
Israel’s apparent decision to hold off on a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip and instead conduct more limited ground incursions, at least initially, aligns with suggestions that the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, made to his Israeli counterparts in recent days, American officials said on Saturday.
Biden administration officials warned that it was hard to tell what Israel would eventually do, since increased airstrikes and expanded ground incursions in the past three days indicated a more aggressive posture.
—-
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/28/israel-gaza-ground-operation-00124104
“What we are seeing now in Gaza is what is termed a ‘Reconnaissance Pull,’” said Mick Mulroy, formerly a top Pentagon official for the Middle East. “This tactic is applied to large unit formations in which small elements locate and rapidly exploit enemy weakness. Once the weakness, seams and gaps are discovered, they bring in the parts of the main body of the assault.”
“Over time, we could see the entire ground force in Gaza fully engaged in fighting Hamas by this effort,” Mulroy continued.
@MP No lol. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/28/world/israel-gaza-news-hamas-war
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel called the incursion “the second stage of the war.” He did not describe it as an invasion, and the maneuver appeared more limited than some experts had predicted.
Agree with others that the resolution is woefully unclear.
@MP CBS news quotes "US officials" calling it "A rolling start to a ground invasion":
This is for real the stupidest market I’ve had the misfortune of being part of so far. Everyone arguing over semantics on a poorly documented question along with purposeful Israel ambiguity over troop movements.
Y’all looking for a blow horn or something saying a ground invasion has offically started™️? Just N/A this nonsense.
never again playing with one sentence noob questions requiring a comment fight to resolve
@Bill Brother bill, yes it was obviously an invasion as per the definition. Need some time to figure out if it happened before 8:30 pm pt yeaterday. I’m afk.
@AaronBailey For when you have time to confirm, the answer is yes.
8:30pm Oct 27th PT was 6:30AM Oct 28th in Israel, and the troops from this incursion entered in the evening of the 27th, local time. So definitely before the cutoff.
From Wikipedia:
On the evening of 27 October, the IDF launched a large-scale ground assault on the towns of Beit Hanoun and Bureij in the Gaza Strip. The assault came amid a series of large-scale Israeli airstrikes that cut off mobile communications and internet access in Gaza.[18]
@AaronBailey If people were being petty and arguing definitions someone would have asserted that the day ended at sundown.
@Joshua I will just add that Russia doesn't officially consider their war with Ukraine to have been an invasion.