Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?
Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?
42
830Ṁ17kresolved Aug 11
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17767/luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023/
This question resolves as "Yes", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.
If the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as "No".
If any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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