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At 19%, this question is currently the largest and clearest arbitrage opportunity between Manifold and Metaculus, with identical resolution criteria. At time of comment, Metaculus has 59 forecasters on the question, with a community prediction of 47%.

Traders here should consider dropping a prediction on Metaculus to capitalize on the spread!

@kenakofer afaik Metaculus and Manifold cannot be arbitraged because they are different closed systems.

@AlexbGoode yeah, I probably should find a different word for "free points on the table for those who positively value points on two separate forecasting platforms". Arbitrage is the closest I'm aware of. I'm open to suggestions.

@kenakofer the problem is that I'm the biggest no holder here and don't have any stake on metaculus. If I was on metaculus I would be making bank over there

@ShakedKoplewitz No better time to sign up, and you can just log in with Google if that's your thing! Metaculus is no manifold, but it has its own unique charm.

Maybe it should be obvious, but what caused @Shai or others to drop the probability recently?

@kenakofer The judicial reform is dead (has been for a few months now). Netanyahu is shifting the focus to economic issues to reverse the damage he felt in the polls.

@Shai aaand it's back

The government would have to fall apart by August. They're not doing great but they still have a lot of room and only four months to go.

@ShakedKoplewitz although israel has had snap elections this one is a catch 22, if they end elections with the reform there's nothing to elect.

The budget is already preliminarily approved and there's no reason it would happen this year.

This government seems significantly more stable than the previous one (if not without fractures). For there to be an election in 2023 it would have to collapse within half a year or so, which seems unlikely.