Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?
resolved Jan 1
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predicted YES

At 19%, this question is currently the largest and clearest arbitrage opportunity between Manifold and Metaculus, with identical resolution criteria. At time of comment, Metaculus has 59 forecasters on the question, with a community prediction of 47%.

Traders here should consider dropping a prediction on Metaculus to capitalize on the spread!

@kenakofer afaik Metaculus and Manifold cannot be arbitraged because they are different closed systems.

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode yeah, I probably should find a different word for "free points on the table for those who positively value points on two separate forecasting platforms". Arbitrage is the closest I'm aware of. I'm open to suggestions.

predicted NO

@kenakofer the problem is that I'm the biggest no holder here and don't have any stake on metaculus. If I was on metaculus I would be making bank over there

predicted YES

@ShakedKoplewitz No better time to sign up, and you can just log in with Google if that's your thing! Metaculus is no manifold, but it has its own unique charm.

predicted YES

Maybe it should be obvious, but what caused @Shai or others to drop the probability recently?

bought Ṁ55 of NO

@kenakofer The judicial reform is dead (has been for a few months now). Netanyahu is shifting the focus to economic issues to reverse the damage he felt in the polls.

@Shai aaand it's back

bought Ṁ100 of NO

The government would have to fall apart by August. They're not doing great but they still have a lot of room and only four months to go.

predicted NO

@ShakedKoplewitz although israel has had snap elections this one is a catch 22, if they end elections with the reform there's nothing to elect.

The budget is already preliminarily approved and there's no reason it would happen this year.

bought Ṁ55 of NO

This government seems significantly more stable than the previous one (if not without fractures). For there to be an election in 2023 it would have to collapse within half a year or so, which seems unlikely.

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