Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?

AVS

closes Dec 31

46%

chance

ALL

See the question on metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13471/israeli-knesset-election-in-2023/

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Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ100 of NO

The government would have to fall apart by August. They're not doing great but they still have a lot of room and only four months to go.

Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 49%

@ShakedKoplewitz although israel has had snap elections this one is a catch 22, if they end elections with the reform there's nothing to elect.

The budget is already preliminarily approved and there's no reason it would happen this year.

Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ55 of NO

This government seems significantly more stable than the previous one (if not without fractures). For there to be an election in 2023 it would have to collapse within half a year or so, which seems unlikely.

kenakofer bought Ṁ35 YES from 42% to 46%

Evgeny Galperin bought Ṁ10 YES from 41% to 42%

Shai bought Ṁ100 NO from 50% to 41%

Ron Wiener sold Ṁ181 NO from 41% to 50%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ2 YES at 41%

Shai bought Ṁ65 NO from 47% to 41%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ2 NO at 47%

kenakofer bought Ṁ20 YES from 45% to 47%

kenakofer filled limit order Ṁ67/Ṁ67 YES at 45%

kenakofer filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ75 NO at 50%

Ron Wiener bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

Ron Wiener filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 40%

Ron Wiener bought Ṁ20 NO from 41% to 39%

Karsh bought Ṁ20 NO from 42% to 41%

Karsh sold Ṁ21 YES from 45% to 42%

kenakofer filled limit order Ṁ75/Ṁ75 NO at 49%

kenakofer bought Ṁ20 YES from 43% to 45%

Ron Wiener bought Ṁ10 NO from 44% to 43%

kenakofer bought Ṁ30 YES from 40% to 44%

Ron Wiener created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 50% (cancelled)

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ70 NO from 46% to 40%

Watt bought Ṁ60 YES from 39% to 46%

Shai bought Ṁ100 NO from 49% to 39%

John Smith bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

Ron Wiener filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ30 NO at 50% (cancelled)

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ28 YES at 53% (cancelled)

Ron Wiener bought Ṁ45 NO from 56% to 50%

Tоm bought Ṁ196 YES from 41% to 56%

Ron Wiener bought Ṁ10 NO from 42% to 41%

Karsh bought Ṁ20 YES from 39% to 42%

Evgeny Galperin bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 39%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ20 NO from 42% to 40%

Watt bought Ṁ30 YES from 38% to 42%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ18 YES at 38% (cancelled)

Ron Wiener bought Ṁ50 NO from 40% to 36%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ40 NO from 45% to 40%

kenakofer bought Ṁ20 YES from 42% to 45%

Watt bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 42%

Watt bought Ṁ10 YES from 39% to 40%

Watt bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 39%

Shaked Koplewitz filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 45%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ100 NO from 49% to 37%

Guy Avn bought Ṁ10 YES from 47% to 49%

Carmel Hadar bought Ṁ25 YES from 46% to 47%

Carmel Hadar sold Ṁ25 NO from 45% to 46%

Carmel Hadar sold Ṁ25 NO from 41% to 45%

Mark Ingraham bought Ṁ5 NO from 42% to 41%

Yoav sold Ṁ8 YES from 44% to 42%

Yoav bought Ṁ20 YES from 40% to 44%

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