Will Haifa be successfully attacked by rockets, missiles, mortars, air bombs, or kamikaze drones before the end of 2024?
Standard
36
แน€11k
resolved Oct 7
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if it becomes publicly known that at least one enemy rocket, mortar shell, missile, air bomb, or kamikaze drone reached Haifa and caused some damage between the market start and the end of 2024.

Author betting policy.

I will not bet on this market.

Previous market (2023): https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-haifa-be-successfully-attacked

Get
แน€1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:
bought แน€713 YES

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skq11vox11x

Ynet reports 2 rocket explosions in Haifa

filled a แน€2,000 YES at 96% order

IDF Spokesman: Following the alerts that were activated at 23:22 in the Carmel and Gulf area, about five launches were identified that crossed Lebanese territory, and interception attempts were made. Falls were detected in the area, the incident is being investigated.

Further to Haifa: a number of casualties were reported - among them one injured in moderate condition from shrapnel.

A dozen more. Unconfirmed interceptor fragments hit houses in Kiriyat Yam and somewhere in Haifa.

Kiriyat Bialik, which is technically Haifa

@ICRainbow Just to clarify, according to wikipedia, Kiryat Bialik is a city in the Haifa District, but still a distinct city. It was close, but still not a YES.

@AVS yeah, I wouldn't be happy for such a resolution on the NO side.

The administrative division there is a mess. Kiriyat Haim and Kiriyat Yam are considered Haifa, but the rest of the krayot aren't, despite being on the other side of a street.

And real estate sites consider them a part of Haifa.

Personally, I would rather require Haifa city proper, without all of the krayot. Despite some bureaucratic particulars which muddy the spirit of the question.

@ICRainbow Meanwhile, everyone may consider this as an evidence that scoring a hit there is possible.

@ICRainbow told y'all

This is a third wave for tonight.

Alert levels raised due to "hundreds of launchers" detected targeting Haifa and central Israel.

bought แน€50 YES

Alerts in Kiryat Bialik near Haifa today

https://x.com/niron/status/1799927125514014989?s=19

See also:

what happend on feb 3?