90. Will there be a new legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?
Basic
12
Ṁ878resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
50% chance
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?
52% chance
Which prediction markets will win?
At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
63% chance
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
34% chance
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
67% chance
Will any real-money prediction market let anyone create a market on anything before the end of 2024?
9% chance
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?
78% chance
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
56% chance