90. Will there be a new legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?
12
Ṁ280Ṁ878resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ16 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
53% chance
Which prediction markets IPO in 2026?
Top 1 prediction market by volume in 2026?
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
74% chance
Real money political prediction markets will be legal in the US for a month before 2030
84% chance
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
85% chance
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
59% chance
Will X have a prediction market feature before 2030?
76% chance
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?