91. Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022? | Manifold

91. Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?

Basic

25

Ṁ1743

resolved Dec 19

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Please Resolve

#ACX 2022 Predictions

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

📢Resolving Based On Answer Received By Creator Via Email. Proof Posted Below:

I expect the same sort of incentives that have allowed Polymarket to form to continue to exist, and Polymarket has some weaknesses, so going YES here.

Related questions

Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?

Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?

Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Kalshi by the end of 2024?

Will I have a market with more than 200 ppl trading in it by EOY 2024?

Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?

Will this market still be open in 2026?

Will Kalshi still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?

Will any of my markets get more traders than The Market in 2024?

Will it be possible to make cheap binary markets by end of 2024?

Related questions

Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?

Will this market still be open in 2026?

Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?

Will Kalshi still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?

Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Kalshi by the end of 2024?

Will any of my markets get more traders than The Market in 2024?

Will I have a market with more than 200 ppl trading in it by EOY 2024?

Will it be possible to make cheap binary markets by end of 2024?

Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules