91. Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022? | Manifold

91. Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?

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Ṁ1743

resolved Dec 19

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

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From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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#ACX 2022 Predictions

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📢Resolving Based On Answer Received By Creator Via Email. Proof Posted Below:

I expect the same sort of incentives that have allowed Polymarket to form to continue to exist, and Polymarket has some weaknesses, so going YES here.

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