91. Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?
25
100
Ṁ1.7KṀ261
resolved Dec 19
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ33 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Related questions
Will Kalshi be able to legally offer US election markets by 2030?
45% chance
Will Kalshi be running any US election market by the end of 2024? (keyword: politics)
40% chance
Will I have a market with more than 200 ppl trading in it by EOY 2024?
37% chance
[Kalshi] Will there be a recession by the end of 2024?
21% chance
Will somebody get arrested as a result of an attempt to manipulate a market on Manifold before 2025?
5% chance
Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
6% chance
Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?
20% chance
Will Kalshi be running any US election market by the end of 2025?
50% chance
Will Kalshi still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?
91% chance
Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?
6% chance