91. Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?
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25
Ṁ1743
resolved Dec 19
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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📢Resolving Based On Answer Received By Creator Via Email. Proof Posted Below:

I expect the same sort of incentives that have allowed Polymarket to form to continue to exist, and Polymarket has some weaknesses, so going YES here.