89. Will Manifold Markets still be alive and active by the end of 2022?
100
260Ṁ7915resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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predictedNO 2y
If, hypothetically, a DoS attack took the server down on Dec 30 and it didn't come back until Jan 2...would this resolve to "No"?
Asking for a friend.
> Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
I'll take the +2400% of 5 funny money on the chance that Manifold introduces a crypto currency and rightfully gets sued into oblivion.
Though I think that the getting successfully sued part is probably on the 2023 roadmap instead.
Yeah, you need the ability to borrow now and pay if you're wrong. That's what NO should be in cases like this.
Hm, buying NO here is a bit like betting that AI will kill all humans: what's your money worth if you win?
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