46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?

This is question #46 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Sort by:
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
ACXBot avatar
ACX BotBot

I would bet heavily on such a product not being any good, at least by my standards, but that’s not the question, and the $29 product can be something like one piece of sushi so price is unlikely to actually stop this from happening, the same way quality won’t stop it either (see ‘beyond sushi’ which somehow is not ‘cooked fish.’) All it takes is one restaurant serving some tiny sampler as a curiosity. Not knowing any details, though, I’m only going to buy M250 of YES here, taking it to 37%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

MichaelDickens avatar
Michael Dickens

The "less than $30" clause non-trivially changes my probability. There's a significant chance that cultured meat is sold at a high-end restaurant, and high-end restaurant meals commonly cost more than $30.

My (rough, poorly-considered) probabilities are: 30% chance of sale at <$30, 20% chance of sale at >=$30, 50% chance of no sale.

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galebought Ṁ10 of NO