46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Animal Consumption Trends

46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?

45%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is question #46 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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I would bet heavily on such a product not being any good, at least by my standards, but that’s not the question, and the $29 product can be something like one piece of sushi so price is unlikely to actually stop this from happening, the same way quality won’t stop it either (see ‘beyond sushi’ which somehow is not ‘cooked fish.’) All it takes is one restaurant serving some tiny sampler as a curiosity. Not knowing any details, though, I’m only going to buy M250 of YES here, taking it to 37%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

Michael Dickens

The "less than $30" clause non-trivially changes my probability. There's a significant chance that cultured meat is sold at a high-end restaurant, and high-end restaurant meals commonly cost more than $30.

My (rough, poorly-considered) probabilities are: 30% chance of sale at <$30, 20% chance of sale at >=$30, 50% chance of no sale.

Carson Galebought Ṁ10 of NO

Lay bought Ṁ30 YES from 44% to 45%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES from 43% to 44%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 37%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 54%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 51%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 40%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES from 41% to 43%

zzq bought Ṁ50 YES from 40% to 41%

Finn Hambly filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ200 NO at 45%

Finn Hambly created limit order for Ṁ90 YES at 25%

Finn Hambly sold Ṁ72 YES from 42% to 40%

Denis Baudouin bought Ṁ25 NO at 42%

Flan 🍮 bought Ṁ10 YES at 42%

Denis Baudouin bought Ṁ10 NO at 42%

zzq bought Ṁ50 YES from 41% to 42%

Lauro Langosco bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 41%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES from 40% to 42%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 40%

Ivan bought Ṁ20 YES from 40% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ33/Ṁ100 YES at 40% (cancelled)

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ85 YES from 37% to 39%

Ivan bought Ṁ10 YES at 37%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES from 36% to 37%

Valery Cherepanov bought Ṁ30 NO from 37% to 36%

Lagged variable bought Ṁ10 YES at 37%

Sailfish bought Ṁ50 YES from 36% to 37%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES from 35% to 36%

Nadja_L bought Ṁ10 NO at 35%

Will bought Ṁ25 NO at 35%

Jean-Philippe Burelle bought Ṁ10 YES at 35%

Nico D sold Ṁ41 NO from 34% to 35%

Nick el Chen bought Ṁ100 NO from 36% to 34%

Stan Pinsent sold Ṁ35 NO at 36%

habakuk bought Ṁ50 NO at 36%

klaus roth sold Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 36%

JAAM sold Ṁ6 YES at 37%

Lauri Elias bought Ṁ10 YES at 37%

kenakofer bought Ṁ10 YES at 37%

comsynthus bought Ṁ10 YES at 37%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 37%

Carson Gale bought Ṁ15 YES from 36% to 37%

Alex... bought Ṁ50 NO from 37% to 36%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES at 37%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO at 37%

Zvi Mowshowitz bought Ṁ150 YES at 37%

Zvi Mowshowitz bought Ṁ100 YES from 33% to 37%

Finn Hambly created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 29%

kenakofer sold Ṁ17 YES from 34% to 33%

Steven bought Ṁ50 YES from 32% to 34%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ10 YES at 32%

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