Huber's Bistro serves Good Meat at < $30

https://cen.acs.org/food/Inside-effort-cut-cost-cultivated/101/i33

@oh Huber's Bistro is in Singapore, not the US. The two US places mentioned are > $30

@NcyRocks Ooh good catch

Should be resolved no at this point.

EDIT: Ah I've seen the description now saying it would be based on Scott's written judgement. I mean, okay

https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2023/09/15/cell-cultured-chicken-lab-grown-good-meat-upside-foods/

Oh boy https://www.wired.com/story/upside-foods-lab-grown-chicken/

Insiders Reveal Major Problems at Lab-Grown-Meat Startup Upside Foods

Billion-dollar cultivated-meat startup Upside Foods wants you to think the breakthrough chicken fillets it sells are made in a futuristic factory. A WIRED investigation tells a different story.

Scott Alexander clarifies the resolution here:

In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? Could it be a special offer that lasts for a limited amount of time? Do giveaways count? Does imported meat count? Does partial cultured meat count and if so is any percentage ok? If it's part of a menu do we divide the cost of the menu by the number of dishes or does the whole cost count?

I'm going to rule that promotions where it stops being available later won't count, but that if it's available just like any food, and some sale of the same sort that other foods sometimes get causes it to be on sale for below $30, I'll allow it. Imports are fine. Partial cultured meat is a good question; I'm going to rule that animal meat+cultured doesn't count, but plant-based-meat+cultured does if the cultured significantly changes the taste or texture or something. I'm going to rule that you have to be able to purchase it with less than $30 in your pocket, so if it's part of a package meal that costs more than $30, it doesn't count.

@kenakofer Thanks!

@wustep Where, when?

Costs far more than $30 AFAICT, but it's one step closer.

@kenakofer A lot more and not going down anytime soon with inflation.

@kenakofer "Upside Foods held a contest on social media to determine who would be able to try the product at Bar Crenn, and those winners will be able to dig in this weekend. They’ll each pay a symbolic $1 to try the chicken."

(This market is about "at" the end of 2023, so this isn't a basis for resolution, but still interesting.)

Lab-grown chicken debuts in San Francisco restaurant | CNN Business

Chicken made from cultivated cells is officially on the menu at Bar Crenn in San Francisco. But you can’t just walk in and order it.

UPSIDE Foods has received Label Approval from the USDA, which they say leaves only a Grant of Inspection from the USDA before being able to sell in the US.

As a contender for future resolution: https://upsidefoods.com/food got FDA approval in late 2022 and is awaiting USDA approval before they announce availability and prices.

I would bet heavily on such a product not being any good, at least by my standards, but that’s not the question, and the $29 product can be something like one piece of sushi so price is unlikely to actually stop this from happening, the same way quality won’t stop it either (see ‘beyond sushi’ which somehow is not ‘cooked fish.’) All it takes is one restaurant serving some tiny sampler as a curiosity. Not knowing any details, though, I’m only going to buy M250 of YES here, taking it to 37%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

The "less than $30" clause non-trivially changes my probability. There's a significant chance that cultured meat is sold at a high-end restaurant, and high-end restaurant meals commonly cost more than $30.

My (rough, poorly-considered) probabilities are: 30% chance of sale at <$30, 20% chance of sale at >=$30, 50% chance of no sale.