a avatar
arae
closes Jan 1, 2024
OpenAI will release GPT-4 [in 2023]
90%
chance

This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability.

In its brief history, the research group OpenAI has released four large language models capable of producing intelligible text under the name “GPT,” or Generative Pre-trained Transformer. The first iteration came out in summer 2018. Then in early 2019, they unveiled GPT-2; in summer 2020 came GPT-3, and as part of the very high-profile ChatGPT product they revealed in late November 2022, they announced they had created GPT-3.5. The question then naturally arises: When is GPT-4 coming?

Impressionistically, I find GPT-3.5 outputs much more convincing than GPT-3 ones, but OpenAI did not judge the advance significant enough for the name GPT-4. The release schedule also seems to be slowing down somewhat. But the rumor mill points in the opposite direction, with the New York Times’s Kevin Roose reporting murmurs that GPT-4 will come out in 2023, and TechCrunch’s Kyle Wiggers more evasively suggesting “perhaps as soon as 2023.”

I’m inclined to give the rumor mill some weight, which is why I think GPT-4 in 2023 is more likely than not, but I’m not confident at all.

(Vox)

Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.

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dp avatar

How does this resolve if the "GPT" line of models is discontinued, but they still release something better?

a avatar

@dp It resolves according to whether Vox's Future Perfect columnists says they got the prediction right. If they say something like "this prediction doesn't make sense anymore" then I'll resolve N/A.