resolved Jan 1

This is question #35 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

The average forecast by Finder's experts suggests that Bitcoin's price is projected to reach $30,463 by the END of 2023, a notable decline from the previous average prediction of $38,488 for the same year, as indicated in our survey from July 2023.

1.    For the price forecast at year's end in 2023:

·      Mean (average) prediction: $30,463.

·      July 2023 - Previous Average Prediction: $38,488

·      (30,463 - 38,488) / 38,488 = -20.88% is the percentage change.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

Deribit has the 30k call at a 39 delta for Dec 29th (implies a 39% probability that the price closes above 30k on Dec 29th)

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch That data publicly available?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Thanks. Might be worth checking the other Bitcoin binary option markets against this.

40% annualized vol, roughly 22% vol over the next 117 days. So there is 68% prob bitcoin is between 21k-31k, and 32% prob is outside of that range, 16% above and 16% below.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Why NO:

If crypto lawsuit bite or Tether crashes Bitcoin will go down. Also energy prices.

bought Ṁ100 of NO
predicted NO

@BoltonBailey Yes I also predicted NO there. I don't claim to be consistent 😉

My reasoning for no Tether depeg is: the fraud is still too big to fail. Market will stay irrational during 2023.

predicted YES

@uair01 would you like to bet on Tether going tits up by a certain date? I want to be betting against the Tether fudsters

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I don't think there's FUD around Tether, just a lot of quite evident fraud red flags. But that doesn't mean collapse is imminent or predictable. Many frauds held up solidly and then collapsed catastrophically and quickly: Enron, Madoff, Wirecard, OneCoin. It may certainly go on for 5 years still. I'm not betting on a date.

predicted YES

@uair01 see, what I'm asking for, which I've asked of basically every person who thinks tether is a fraud, is some type of operationalization. Or some type of concrete prediction to falsify. Instead I always either get absurd terms where I have to lock up 30x+ the money they do (and I outperform the bet with simple t bonds) or this vague "it's fraud but idk how long it lasts for since that's impossible to predict" vaguery that is never held accountable.

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch If you're a good trader, you can make a lot of money from a fraud, even if you know it's a fraud. That's where the operationalization lies at the moment. It's too early for short selling, unless you have detailed inside knowledge.

predicted NO

@uair01 You cannot seriously be claiming that you are bidding 0% that something you describe as having "a lot of quite evident fraud red flags" will collapse on any time frame.

predicted NO

@Sailfish Yes I can, because of opportunity costs. I can spend my time and M better on other bets that I understand better or that I have more fun with.

bought Ṁ2 of YES

We like coins that shimmer and shine,
But Bitcoin's value can sometimes decline.
Will it climb or will it flop?
In 2023, will it reach the top?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I'm confused by 50%. Do people predict 10% inflation or very inefficient markets? Do people that bet yes buy a lot of btc?

predicted YES

@Lorenzo I wish I had extra dollars to exchange for BTC

Does $16.6k-$30k make sense as an ~50% confidence interval for year-end BTC? I’d guess there is modestly more variance here than that, and this market is clearly not moving in rational fashion as news comes in, so I’ll do a min-size M10 buy on YES despite thinking that the 75% number was likely too high.

- Zvi Mowshowitz