See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as "no".
This is question #22 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ343 | |
| 2 | Ṁ301 | |
| 3 | Ṁ222 | |
| 4 | Ṁ156 | |
| 5 | Ṁ139 |
No. Not that it is strictly impossible, but it would take something transformational to politics, where the last event that qualifies would probably have been 9/11. A war barely did anything. I can see the Republicans becoming less popular from a debt ceiling crisis or government shutdown, but even if Biden does everything right I don’t see how he gets to even. I bought 500 of NO to go down to 16%.- Zvi Mowshowitz