22. Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating at the end of 2023?
20%
chance

See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as "no".

This is question #22 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.