22. Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating at the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

22. Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating at the end of 2023?

20%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as "no".

This is question #22 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

YES shares

521

249

240

227

A Somewhat Rude Parakeet

121

104

67

64

59

57

55

54

Simon Mendelsohn

54

Emil Slipsager Hedegaard

51

Braulio Valdivielso Martínez

51

51

50

50

Mikala Sterling

49

47

NO shares

Peter Wildeford

473

AccelerationBot

287

270

122

Kevin Rosentrater

122

122

119

66

62

60

60

60

37

37

37

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

34

25

24

24

24

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 21% to 19%

Mikala Sterling

bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 21%

sold Ṁ21 YES from 21% to 20%

bought Ṁ20 NO at 21%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 21%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ59/Ṁ100 NO at 21% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 17% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 17%

bought Ṁ55 NO at 17%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 18%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 17%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 18% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 18%

Kevin Rosentrater

bought Ṁ100 NO from 19% to 18%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

Marcin Dominiak

bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

Marcin Dominiak

sold Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 19%

Marcin Dominiak

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%

bought Ṁ30 NO at 19%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 20% to 19%

Braulio Valdivielso Martínez

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%

sold Ṁ13 YES from 20% to 19%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 19% to 20%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

bought Ṁ40 YES from 16% to 19%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 17% to 16%

A Somewhat Rude Parakeet

bought Ṁ20 YES from 16% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 15% to 16%

bought Ṁ5 YES at 15%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 15%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 15% to 16%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 15%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 15% to 14%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 15%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 14% (cancelled)

Peter Wildeford

bought Ṁ400 NO from 18% to 14%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 18%

created limit order for Ṁ19 YES at 13%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 17%

bought Ṁ5 YES at 16%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 16%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 19% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

bought Ṁ30 NO from 20% to 19%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 20%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 20%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%