Must be a sincere coming-out, not a joke. Must express a strong desire to be the opposite biological sex, or intention to take cross-sex hormones, or consistently request to be addressed by opposite sex pronouns.
What happens if they come out as nonbinary?
I assume the base rate of Americans being transgender is 0.06. I also assume that we are in the initial phase of transgenderism, in which the majority of newly out trans people are people who were previously closeted or unaware that transitioning was a thing. I approximate the beginning of the modern transgender era as 2010, so there are 12 years during which those 0.06 have their coming out years evenly distributed. This gives a probability of 0.06/12 for any American coming out in the next year. For the specific people this question is about, I assign each a Weirdness multiplier w_i and a Cross-Sex Idenfication multiplier s_i. Then the resulting probability of any of them coming out is: P = 1 - Π(1-w_i*s_i*p0). I get P=0.09.
Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott Alexander, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition