Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott Alexander
4%
chance

Must be a sincere coming-out, not a joke. Must express a strong desire to be the opposite biological sex, or intention to take cross-sex hormones, or consistently request to be addressed by opposite sex pronouns.

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DavidMathers avatar
David Mathersis predicting NO at 9%

What happens if they come out as nonbinary?

MordecaiWeynberg avatar
Mordecai Weynbergis predicting YES at 9%

@DavidMathers then they would be transgender

AB72ce avatar
agpenjoyeris predicting YES at 9%

@DavidMathers resolves yes

Ophelia avatar
Opheliasold Ṁ72 of NO

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1608143077910233098

AB72ce avatar
agpenjoyerbought Ṁ10 of NO

I assume the base rate of Americans being transgender is 0.06. I also assume that we are in the initial phase of transgenderism, in which the majority of newly out trans people are people who were previously closeted or unaware that transitioning was a thing. I approximate the beginning of the modern transgender era as 2010, so there are 12 years during which those 0.06 have their coming out years evenly distributed. This gives a probability of 0.06/12 for any American coming out in the next year. For the specific people this question is about, I assign each a Weirdness multiplier w_i and a Cross-Sex Idenfication multiplier s_i. Then the resulting probability of any of them coming out is: P = 1 - Π(1-w_i*s_i*p0). I get P=0.09.

AB72ce avatar
agpenjoyerbought Ṁ9 of YES

@AB72ce oops, base rate should be 0.006 which makes my final answer 0.009 or 0.9%.

JamieCrom avatar
jamiebought Ṁ10 of NO

@AB72ce i think the base rate of being trans is 50% and most people are lying to themselves

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott Alexander, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition