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🤣 Oh come on!!!

Let's break this down:
Average age of these 7 individuals is 52 years.
A Pew Research study found 0.3% of US population aged 50+ is Transgender (average age of those people might be a bit over 52, but it's close enough)
100% - 0.3% = 99.7%; 0.997^7 = 0.979;, 1 - 0.979 = 0.021 = 2.1% chance that one of 7 randomly picked Americans would be transgender/NB. (most of these people are American)
That's already well below 5%. Now, one of them would have to come out within a 7 month timeframe, drastically reducing the odds, probably to below .5%. Then, consider that this group of people leans conservative, and many have expressed transphobic sentiment.

I really don't see the argument for betting YES here.

@ShadowyZephyr The argument would be that they are not a random individual. We have information about them; some people may found that there are enough evidence to push the probability up to 5%. (I don't have any information about them though, so I bet NO)

@SavioMak As I said, almost all of them are conservative, and transphobic at times. That should decrease the probability, not increase.

@ShadowyZephyr yeah, I didn't see that line just now.

@ShadowyZephyr there are lots of conservative trans women... I don't think that's a contraindication

@StrayClimb
Yeah, there are conservative trans people. I'm not denying their existence. But LGBTQ people are SIGNIFICANTLY more liberal than the general population. And 4 of the 7 have been actively transphobic (Donald Trump, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson)

@StrayClimb yes I agree. I think that trend is weakest among late age transitioning trans women, though

@StrayClimb I'd be interested to see some statistics on that. Even if that is true, though, the odds are still much lower than 5%.

@ShadowyZephyr yes that would be interesting! I agree. I'm still no at 5%

@ShadowyZephyr 5 of the 7; Elon Musk is also pretty blatantly transphobic, especially recently. I don't think Mark Zuckerberg really cares, and IIRC Scott Alexander is pro-trans, so they're the only exceptions.

@evergreenemily Okay, I wasn't including Elon Musk, because I haven't seen an example of his transphobia yet. If you could provide one, that would be nice

@ShadowyZephyr He just tweeted "every parent should watch this" in reference to Matt Walsh's transphobic propaganda film. I've heard he's also been posting stuff like "trans surgery bad" but I'm not particularly interested in verifying that myself.

(Also worth noting that Elon has a trans daughter who legally changed her name as soon as possible, i.e. upon turning 18, because she didn't want to be associated with him.)

@evergreenemily "trans surgery bad" is kind of broad. There are really issues with the surgery, it's not the same as being born as that sex, but people should obviously be allowed to get it if that's what they want, and they know the possible impact and consequences it could have.}

Really don't want to watch a 90 minute documentary, but it does seem bad. So I guess he is transphobic.

@ShadowyZephyr My phrasing there was a bit ambiguous; my understanding (based on second-hand comments) was that Elon was saying that getting the surgery is a bad thing.

Oh yeah, I'm not watching it either - I just know Matt Walsh is infamous for anti-trans bigotry (among other things.)

@ShadowyZephyr Either the word "transphobic" is a meaningless term of abuse, or you shouldn't label people as it without examining the evidence yourself.

@RobinGreen I have seen enough tweets and other comments from Matt Walsh to know he's transphobic. I do not need to watch a documentary produced by him, nor do I want to.

I included all of these people because I think most have a slightly higher than baseline chance of being trans, and I think the average person will underrate this chance somewhat. Trump and Musk have both gone to some lengths to preserve their hair, and they both fit what I perceive to be the middle aged repressor profile. JK Rowling said that she would have been tempted to transition if she were growing up today, so I very strongly suspect that she experiences gender dysphoria, though I think it's unlikely she would come out given her beliefs. Scott Alexander has said that his personality would work better as a woman and that he'd be equally comfortable as one. Jordan Peterson, Zuckerberg, and Tucker Carlson are just random prominent people I included who I have some suspicions about, but for no particular reason.

Let's make a lot more markets like this. There is a really serious difference in various people's views of reality that we need to put to the mana test.

I would not be that surprised if Rowling was actually trans, but I doubt she'll come out by the end of 2023

@Celene What makes you say that?

What happens if they come out as nonbinary?

@DavidMathers then they would be transgender

@DavidMathers resolves yes

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1608143077910233098