Will there be a criminal prosecution of an individual in the US for LLM prompt engineering before 2025? | Manifold

Will there be a criminal prosecution of an individual in the US for LLM prompt engineering before 2025?

24

closes 2025

28%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As the title says: the litigation must be before 2025, against a US based individual, criminal in nature, and be solely based on submitting a prompt into any modern LLM.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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What possible law would they be breaking?

2 replies

A7om.ethpredicts YES

LLMs have already been tricked by various PEs to give sensitive info or instructions for illegal things. Thus far they've been largely white hats. Use your imagination :)

@A7om20 Is the question whether a crime will be committed with the help of an LLM and then involved in the legal system, or if the prompting itself will be illegal(ie because of new laws)? Does it matter if someone is only charged but the court proceedings haven't yet begun?

Is market on a prosecution being filed, being filed and going to completion (regardless of outcome), or only if the prosecution is successful?

1 reply

A7om.ethbought Ṁ100 of YES

@DaveK prosecution does not need to be successful. Charges just have to be filed for a "yes" resolution.

Capresis sold Ṁ30 NO from 26% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 NO at 26% (cancelled) 🤖

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ15 NO at 27% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ39/Ṁ100 NO at 28% (cancelled) 🤖

A7om.eth bought Ṁ50 YES from 23% to 31%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 23% (cancelled) 🤖

Nathan Showell bought Ṁ80 NO from 25% to 22%

Jake From Hackmud bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25%

Jai D (Jai) bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

Paul Hobbs bought Ṁ1 NO at 27%

Voidvamp sold Ṁ12 NO from 26% to 27%

Matt Burtell bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

Paul Hobbs bought Ṁ10 NO at 27%

KnowNothing sold Ṁ18 NO from 26% to 27%

Adam Treat bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

KnowNothing sold Ṁ8 NO from 26% to 27%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 26% (cancelled) 🤖

Capresis bought Ṁ30 NO from 30% to 27%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

Geriperi bought Ṁ30 NO from 32% to 29%

Asher P bought Ṁ10 NO from 34% to 32%

evergreen bought Ṁ5 NO from 35% to 34%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 35% (cancelled) 🤖

yk bought Ṁ20 NO from 38% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled) 🤖

Voidvamp bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 37%

Calvinball bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 41%

Jim bought Ṁ3 NO from 36% to 35%

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Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ15 YES at 39% (cancelled) 🤖

Joshua filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled) 🤖

George bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 32%

Joshua created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled) 🤖

Flabbergasted Phoebe bought Ṁ50 NO from 71% to 32%

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Joshua created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 85%

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KnowNothing bought Ṁ5 NO from 89% to 83%

A7om.eth bought Ṁ100 YES from 41% to 89%

Andrew G bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 41%

Related questions

Will the leading LLM at the beginning of 2026 still be subject to the reversal curse?

59% chance

Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2023?

44% chance

will someone discover areas of existing ANSI in LLMs until 2024?

51% chance

Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? (4500M subsidy)

47% chance

Will at least 1 in 8 teams at a FAANG company routinely deploy LLM-written production code by the end of 2023?

28% chance

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

77% chance

Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?

54% chance

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Scott Alexander

35% chance

Will Apple embed an LLM in any of their products by the end of 2023?

Brian T. Edwards

36% chance

Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?

34% chance

Will the new LLM released by Meta be open-source?

43% chance

Will I (Peter Wildeford) think that there is an open source LLM as good as GPT3.5 by EOY 2023?

Peter Wildeford

93% chance

Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

61% chance

Will google home assistant have LLM integration by Oct 1, 2023?

4% chance

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

46% chance

Will an LLM have been reported to earn or gain cryptocurrency by EOY 2023?

Peter Wildeford

52% chance

7) The concept of “LLMOps” will emerge as a trendy new version of MLOps.

60% chance

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Peter Wildeford

27% chance

Will Google's Gemini LLM be released in 2023?

76% chance

Will Apple acquire an LLM startup in 2023?

20% chance