Measure at the time of closing -- if someone has > 20k yes shares and sells before market close, resolves no if there are no other > 20k shareholders.
Measured in SHARES, not value
If someone has > 20k shares, resolves YES
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ820 | |
| 2 | Ṁ665 | |
| 3 | Ṁ128 | |
| 4 | Ṁ112 | |
| 5 | Ṁ37 |
@cece Make sure to remember to buy that last share in the next day or two! Or if for some reason you don't want to, I'd be happy to take those YES shares off your hands at a discount.
This market has no criteria for a YES resolution. @8, this is a great opportunity to resolve NO, profit, and show that you uphold the believe in the power of prediction markets through technical rigor :)
@JacyAnthis They indicated below that the market resolves to YES if the condition in the title is met. I don't know why they haven't fixed the description, but if they resolve this incorrectly I'm pretty confident the Manifold admins will override it.
@IsaacKing I would disagree that "one would assume that it resolves to YES" or the prior comment is an "indication" "that the market resolves to YES if the condition in the title is met." It's just a statement of what one would assume.
But it's moot because they just updated the market description :)
@JacyAnthis It was certainly phrased in an evasive way, I agree. But I think it's clear what the implication was, to the point where it would clearly be dishonest to resolve the market any other way.
@IsaacKing maybe. I think I err more towards resolving based on technicalities over resolving based on the spirit of the statement than you do. I think prediction markets work best that way, even if it makes some people feel like they were treated unfairly due to a subtlety that shouldn't have been expected to notice.
@8 fair, though I think there was also the possibility of an ambiguous resolution to consider, in addition to YES and NO.
@IsaacKing The think the unless forces her not to choose no. Though hypothetically it could be resolved to 1%
@IsaacKing Well if cece buys one more yes share, then they would have > 20k shares, which, in the market description would resolves to YES
@8 the description give no indication on how it will resolve if someone has more than 20k shares. It only states how it will not resolve if that happens. This means techniquely you could resolve to any percent, yes, or n/a just as long as you dont resolve to no
@Odoacre it's pretty much guaranteed not to happen though (i check manifold very often) so bet yes while you can