Market resolves to NO unless someone has > 20k YES shares
64
64
1.3K
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
YES

Measure at the time of closing -- if someone has > 20k yes shares and sells before market close, resolves no if there are no other > 20k shareholders.

Measured in SHARES, not value

If someone has > 20k shares, resolves YES

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bought Ṁ1 of YES

we bought the last share, everyone riot

predicted YES

@cece Make sure to remember to buy that last share in the next day or two! Or if for some reason you don't want to, I'd be happy to take those YES shares off your hands at a discount.

predicted YES

@A i will try 🙏

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@cece Or switch last minute and make tons of money :)

predicted NO

market description fixed

bought Ṁ20 of NO

This market has no criteria for a YES resolution. @8, this is a great opportunity to resolve NO, profit, and show that you uphold the believe in the power of prediction markets through technical rigor :)

predicted NO

(or resolve 1% if you want, since "unless" arguably disallows a NO if someone holds >20k YES)

@JacyAnthis They indicated below that the market resolves to YES if the condition in the title is met. I don't know why they haven't fixed the description, but if they resolve this incorrectly I'm pretty confident the Manifold admins will override it.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@IsaacKing I would disagree that "one would assume that it resolves to YES" or the prior comment is an "indication" "that the market resolves to YES if the condition in the title is met." It's just a statement of what one would assume.

But it's moot because they just updated the market description :)

@JacyAnthis It was certainly phrased in an evasive way, I agree. But I think it's clear what the implication was, to the point where it would clearly be dishonest to resolve the market any other way.

predicted NO

yep, i phrased this badly. i just forgot about percentage resolutions.

@IsaacKing maybe. I think I err more towards resolving based on technicalities over resolving based on the spirit of the statement than you do. I think prediction markets work best that way, even if it makes some people feel like they were treated unfairly due to a subtlety that shouldn't have been expected to notice.

@8 fair, though I think there was also the possibility of an ambiguous resolution to consider, in addition to YES and NO.

predicted NO

Did the title and description change? I seem to remember this market required that someone sold >20k shares

@PatS nope!

Note that even if Cece buys one more share, it would still be valid for Trong to resolve this market to NO.

No YES condition was ever specified in the title or description.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing The think the unless forces her not to choose no. Though hypothetically it could be resolved to 1%

predicted YES

@IsaacKing sweating bullets rn

@IsaacKing Well if cece buys one more yes share, then they would have > 20k shares, which, in the market description would resolves to YES

predicted YES

@8 the description give no indication on how it will resolve if someone has more than 20k shares. It only states how it will not resolve if that happens. This means techniquely you could resolve to any percent, yes, or n/a just as long as you dont resolve to no

@Wobbles fair, but one would assume that it resolves to YES

predicted YES

@8 thanks bestie

bought Ṁ16 of YES

lol @halfaswiftie shouldn't you buy one more share?

predicted YES

@na_pewno He could do that or buy No lastminute to profit even more

predicted YES

@Svenbonne its less to profit and more just because it's funny since i might forget

predicted YES

just sayin, if i sell all my shares i lose ~17.5k. the market has to be really high otherwise i'm not selling (or i might forget tbh)

@halfaswiftie you mean you're going to forget to buy the last share ?

predicted YES

@Odoacre yeah that

predicted YES

@Odoacre it's pretty much guaranteed not to happen though (i check manifold very often) so bet yes while you can

@halfaswiftie would be a pretty good april's fools

predicted NO

@halfaswiftie Can you make more if you sell and buy no at the last minute?

predicted YES

@AnlAnar no- i would basically lose everything