Will the US reschedule cannabis by the end of 2024?
321
1.6k
2.1k
2025
61%
chance

Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.

No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.

The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative.

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Title and description are contradictory to me. If it’s still a drug you can go to jail for it’s illegal, even if it’s not schedule one. My bad for not reading it carefully, but maybe you would consider changing the title.

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@BrunoJ I think the probability of cannabis getting rescheduled in 2024 should be inversely related to the probability of Joe Biden promising to reschedule cannabis if he's reelected. If he promises to do it if he's reelected, then doesn't that imply that it can't be done before the end of his first term? If it happens before the election or looks like it's going to happen before the end of his first term, then why would he promise to make it happen on the condition of reelection?

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iykyk

I'm oblivious to facts on this, can someone explain why this market is so high? Never seen federal legalization widely/internetional-news-worthily discussed. Is this just wishful thinking, or am I just uninformed? My current personal estimate for 50% would be 2033

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@dgga there's some discussion on this market:

@dgga It's because the question is weirdly written, defining "legalization" as "rescheduling." They're not the same thing

@KaylaGamin the description is clear that it means removal from schedule 1

@egroj My point is that the description (rescheduling) does not match the headline (legalization)

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