Will reopen after each phase. The intermediate closing dates are there to make it easier to determine whether a specific milestone has been reached.
I will edit or N/A options too far in the future or specifically created to manipulate this or other markets, if I suspect that is the case. More broadly, I reserve the right to edit, interpret and resolve the ones I deem inappropriate in my favor.
Update:
I thought this should be clear from the above, but apparently not: I am also not in favor of massive manipulation using alt accounts. It's fine if you convince real people to trade, but don't go off and use a bunch of alt accounts. I reserve the right to N/A or even resolve in the opposite direction of the manipulation.
1,000People are also trading
Could @mods investigate some alt accounts for me? Looks like @CheerForgeAdmin referred @Banana43 who referred @BdbeDsl who referred @Camilleme who referred @Theorice97 who referred @Salome who referred @Heptagone in the span of less than 2 hours. If nothing else, this at least violates the "only one alt account per person" rule, right?
@ChrisCook You are the biggest NO holder on the option "111 traders in 555 days", so I would like to hear your opinion on whether to resolve it NO, N/A or YES, before I decide.
@4fa I believe you should at least wait to hear back from the mods investigation before resolving. Since the number is exactly 111 right now, if the mods conclude that any or all of those accounts that got created just a few hours ago are in violation, then it seems clear to me that the resolution should be a clear NO. If you don'y get a response from the mods, and you feel like there's clearly something wrong going on,, then I believe you have the right to N/A the question.
@4fa Yes, I can confirm 8 of the accounts are alts. Up to you how you resolve based on that info, I will be fining / punishing that person separately, sufficiently to undo any benefit they receive.
@4fa To expand a little on my previous comment, while I believe the technically correct resolution would be NO (due to the subtraction of the invalid accounts leaving the number of traders less than 111), I would understand a resolution of N/A as being more fair to anyone who got suckered into betting YES because of the presence of the violating accounts.
@Gen Thank you! Funny that I asked about 6 alt accounts and get reported back that there are 8. That's 133% efficiency. 😁
@ChrisCook I went with N/A and sent you the mana you would have made with your prediction if the market had not been manipulated.
@traders I'm probably not adding another option in the foreseeable future, but here is a market about a similar concept: https://manifold.markets/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-14-traders (It's also about how it gets harder over time to get more traders.)
