Will this question get 70 traders in 501 days?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ325Ṁ7.8k

Sep 1

98.5%

70 traders in 501 days (August 30, 2026)

15%

80 traders in 502 days (August 31, 2026)

1,000 traders in 1,000 days (January 11, 2028)

Resolved

YES

10 traders in 10 days (April 26)

Resolved

YES

20 traders in 20 days (May 6)

Resolved

YES

30 traders in 125 days (August 19)

Resolved

YES

35 traders in 133 days (August 27)

Resolved

YES

60 traders in 500 days (August 29, 2026)

Will reopen after each phase. The intermediate closing dates are there to make it easier to determine whether a specific milestone has been reached.

I will edit or N/A options too far in the future or specifically created to manipulate this or other markets, if I suspect that is the case. More broadly, I reserve the right to edit, interpret and resolve the ones I deem inappropriate in my favor.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

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Will this question get over 999.5 traders by 2030

68% chance

Will this question get 100k traders before 2030?

10% chance

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reposted

@traders I'm probably not adding another option in the foreseeable future, but here is a market about a similar concept: https://manifold.markets/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-14-traders (It's also about how it gets harder over time to get more traders.)

How much longer to reach 14 traders compared to 7?

Experimental, I hope this one works out! Every option is a threshold, not a bucket, so they overlap. When this market reaches 14 traders, I will calculate "(time from market creation to reach 14 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 7 traders)". All options that apply to the result will resolve YES, all others will resolve NO. More ambitious previous version: (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-20-traders?r=NGZh)Question created: 24 Oct 2025, 17:55:47 UTC Keeping track of traders: vee dfish MaxE kamn TracyHarms

@traders Sorry, found a calculation mistake, correcting it now.

bought Ṁ10 YES

20 days can be resolved now

This is "unique people who have traded", not "number of trades," right? There is no easy way to see automatically if people sell stuff off again. And it is currently at 4?

@rayman2000 ah wait I guess this is listed at the top of the market, my bad!

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People are also trading

Will this question get over 999.5 traders by 2030

68% chance

Will this question get 100k traders before 2030?

10% chance

People are also trading

People are also trading

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