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MANIFOLD
Will this question get 111 traders in 555 days? (October 23, 2026) UTC
101
Ṁ475Ṁ12k
Oct 24
11%
110 traders in 580 days (November 17, 2026)
1.8%
111 traders in 555 days (October 23, 2026)
28%
1,000 traders in 1,000 days (January 11, 2028)

Will reopen after each phase. The intermediate closing dates are there to make it easier to determine whether a specific milestone has been reached.

I will edit or N/A options too far in the future or specifically created to manipulate this or other markets, if I suspect that is the case. More broadly, I reserve the right to edit, interpret and resolve the ones I deem inappropriate in my favor.

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@4fa The "110 traders in 519 days" can be resolved to NO now, the market closed a couple days ago.

@ChrisCook Oops, you're right, done!

reposted

people get this to 100 traders. free mana!!

bought Ṁ10 YES

6 more for 100

@qhyzn 4 more now

bought Ṁ5 YES

@SpaceEngineer 3

bought Ṁ5 YES

Only 4 people left

bought Ṁ10 YES

free mana to bet YES on 80 traders

reposted

@traders I'm probably not adding another option in the foreseeable future, but here is a market about a similar concept: https://manifold.markets/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-14-traders (It's also about how it gets harder over time to get more traders.)

How much longer to reach 14 traders compared to 7?
Experimental, I hope this one works out! Every option is a threshold, not a bucket, so they overlap. When this market reaches 14 traders, I will calculate "(time from market creation to reach 14 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 7 traders)". All options that apply to the result will resolve YES, all others will resolve NO. More ambitious previous version: (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-20-traders?r=NGZh)Question created: 24 Oct 2025, 17:55:47 UTC Keeping track of traders: vee dfish MaxE kamn TracyHarms

@traders Sorry, found a calculation mistake, correcting it now.

bought Ṁ10 YES

20 days can be resolved now

This is "unique people who have traded", not "number of trades," right? There is no easy way to see automatically if people sell stuff off again. And it is currently at 4?

@rayman2000 ah wait I guess this is listed at the top of the market, my bad!

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