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MANIFOLD
Will this question get 100 traders in 515 days? (September 12, 2026) UTC
94
Ṁ400Ṁ9.9k
Sep 13
53%
100 traders in 515 days (September 12, 2026)
10%
1,000 traders in 1,000 days (January 11, 2028)
Resolved
YES
10 traders in 10 days (April 26)
Resolved
YES
20 traders in 20 days (May 6)
Resolved
YES
30 traders in 125 days (August 19)
Resolved
YES
35 traders in 133 days (August 27)
Resolved
YES
60 traders in 500 days (August 29, 2026)
Resolved
YES
70 traders in 501 days (August 30, 2026)
Resolved
YES
80 traders in 506 days (September 4, 2026)
Resolved
YES
90 traders in 509 days (September 7, 2026)

Will reopen after each phase. The intermediate closing dates are there to make it easier to determine whether a specific milestone has been reached.

I will edit or N/A options too far in the future or specifically created to manipulate this or other markets, if I suspect that is the case. More broadly, I reserve the right to edit, interpret and resolve the ones I deem inappropriate in my favor.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

6 more for 100

bought Ṁ5 YES

Only 4 people left

bought Ṁ10 YES

free mana to bet YES on 80 traders

reposted

@traders I'm probably not adding another option in the foreseeable future, but here is a market about a similar concept: https://manifold.markets/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-14-traders (It's also about how it gets harder over time to get more traders.)

How much longer to reach 14 traders compared to 7?
Experimental, I hope this one works out! Every option is a threshold, not a bucket, so they overlap. When this market reaches 14 traders, I will calculate "(time from market creation to reach 14 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 7 traders)". All options that apply to the result will resolve YES, all others will resolve NO. More ambitious previous version: (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/how-much-longer-to-reach-20-traders?r=NGZh)Question created: 24 Oct 2025, 17:55:47 UTC Keeping track of traders: vee dfish MaxE kamn TracyHarms

@traders Sorry, found a calculation mistake, correcting it now.

bought Ṁ10 YES

20 days can be resolved now

This is "unique people who have traded", not "number of trades," right? There is no easy way to see automatically if people sell stuff off again. And it is currently at 4?

@rayman2000 ah wait I guess this is listed at the top of the market, my bad!

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