Background Manifold prediction markets vary widely in trader participation, with factors like topic relevance, market duration, and visibility influencing engagement. Markets about meta-predictions (predictions about the market itself) can create interesting feedback loops where trader behavior directly influences the outcome.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the total number of unique traders who have placed at least one trade on this market exceeds 999.5 by January 1, 2030 at 12:00 AM UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. The number of traders can be verified through Manifold's public API and market statistics.

Considerations

• This is a self-referential market where trading activity directly influences the outcome

• The market's visibility, including whether it gets featured or shared widely, could significantly impact trader participation

• The long time horizon (until 2030) means the market could potentially attract traders over several years

• Manifold's platform growth or decline over this period could affect the likelihood of reaching this trader threshold