How much longer to reach 14 traders compared to 7?
10
100Ṁ881
Dec 11
-0.14 times as long
expected
32%
Above 4
29%
Above 5

Experimental, I hope this one works out!

Every option is a threshold, not a bucket, so they overlap. When this market reaches 14 traders, I will calculate "(time from market creation to reach 14 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 7 traders)". All options that apply to the result will resolve YES, all others will resolve NO.

More ambitious previous version:

Question created: 24 Oct 2025, 17:55:47 UTC

Seventh trader reached: 5 Nov 2025, 16:09:18 UTC

That means the cut-off times and dates are as follows:

2 times as long: 17 Nov 2025, 14:22 UTC

3 times as long: 29 Nov 2025, 12:36 UTC

4 times as long: 11 Dec 2025, 10:49 UTC

5 times as long: 23 Dec 2025, 09:03 UTC


Keeping track of traders:

  1. vee

  2. dfish

  3. MaxE

  4. kamn

  5. TracyHarms

  6. TheAllMemeingEye

  7. 4fa

  8. ChristopherRandles

  9. harry

  10. winged_one

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy