This market predicts which new general-purpose GPT-family language model OpenAI will officially release first after this market is created on October 26, 2026.
Resolution criteria:
A qualifying release must be officially announced by OpenAI and made publicly accessible through ChatGPT or the OpenAI API.
GPT-6.1 Astra and GPT-6.1 Terra resolve according to their officially released model names.
Bel qualifies only if OpenAI publicly confirms that the released model is Bel or is based on the project codenamed Bel. Otherwise, it falls under "Another GPT model."
New model versions qualify. Silent updates, API aliases, existing-model rollouts, private testing, and limited research previews do not qualify.
Image, audio, video, and embedding-only models are excluded.
If multiple qualifying models launch simultaneously, resolution may be split equally among the corresponding outcomes.
If no qualifying model launches by December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, resolve to "No qualifying release."
Primary sources: OpenAI's official announcements and API documentation.
The market will resolve as soon as a qualifying release is confirmed, or after the deadline if none occurs.
1,000