By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?

Will we learn by EOY 2024 that large AI labs use something like activation addition on their best models?

Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025?

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

By 2028, will there be a language model of less than 10B parameters that is superior to GPT-4?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?