By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024

Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025?

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]