
Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?
9
190Ṁ3382030
91%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolved to YES if there is at least one exam that humans typically take, where GPT-5 or an equivalent flagship model from OpenAI displays superhuman performance. The exact name 'GPT-5' is not necessary.
Edit: To be ‘superhuman’, a GPT-5 or equivalent model has to score higher than the best humans on the same task. If they tie, it only counts if both have a perfect score.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?
59% chance
Will GPT-5 ace exams?
79% chance
Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?
89% chance
Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
46% chance
Will GPT-5 like to delve?
31% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?
62% chance
Will GPT-5 be capable of some form of online learning?
27% chance
Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?
85% chance
What will be true about GPT-5?
What score will GPT-5 achieve on GPQA?