Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Manifold officially announces or implements an extension of the "double trader bonuses" incentive beyond the currently estimated end date of May 25, 2026. It resolves NO if the doubled bonuses conclude on or before May 25, 2026, without a subsequent extension.

Resolution will be based on official communications from Manifold staff (e.g., blog posts, site-wide announcements, or official Discord/social media updates). If the bonuses are allowed to expire and then are reinstated at a later date as a new or separate promotion, this market will resolve NO.

Background

On May 15, 2026, Manifold announced a temporary promotion that doubled trader bonuses for a period of 10 days, with an estimated end date of May 25, 2026. This incentive program is part of an ongoing experimental effort by the platform to increase the number of active markets and enhance market discoverability. The bonus structure affects various liquidity tiers, such as M100, M1,000, M10,000, and M100,000, providing different rewards per trader based on the market's subsidy level.